Strong cities City attractiveness, office market, HR trends Q1 2024 knightfrank.com.pl/en/research Prepared in cooperation with The office market sentiment, the investment potential of the city and the labour market. Wrocław CITY ATTRACTIVENESS Wrocław 293 sq km City area Population 674,100 (30.06.2023, GUS) Population forecast 611,359 (2030) 577,658 (2050) Migration balance (+) 1.4 (12.2021) Unemployment rate 1.7% (02.2024, GUS) GDP growth 8.5% GDP per capita PLN 104,360 (gross) Average salary (gross) PLN ...

Retail Sales Dashboard June 2024 A monthly overview of UK retail sales performance, including key metrics on core sub-sectors and e-commerce. Headline Figures 0.1%0 Sales value (amount spent) growth June 2024 vs. June 2023 *Seasonally adjusted, excluding fuel Including fuel +0.6% 00:W0 Sales volume (items purchased) growth June 2024 vs. June 2023 *Seasonally adjusted, excluding fuel Including fuel -0.2% +0.590 Sales value (amount spent) growth Most recent 3 months YoY growth Sales volume (items purchased) g ...

Feedstocks for Thought European Chemicals | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | European Credit – Basic Resources and General Industrials | | | Ed McGuinness, CFA AC | | | (44-20) 7134-0456 ed.mcguinness ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral investment rating across all bonds for Gerdau, indicating a cautious outlook despite strong credit metrics and liquidity [4][8][9]. Core Insights - Gerdau's results were better than expected in a challenging steel environment, with EBITDA of US$503 million falling 11% sequentially and 34% year-over-year [5][6]. - The company generated US$40 million in cash during the quarter, an improvement from a US$51 million cash burn in the previous quarter, driven by smaller working capital consumption [6][35]. - Management expects a positive outlook for most business units in the second half of 2024, with anticipated demand recovery in Brazil and North America [6][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Gerdau's EBITDA margin deteriorated from 17.4% in Q1 2024 to 15.8% in Q2 2024, reflecting pressures from pricing and costs [5][6]. - Total shipments in Brazil fell by 9% sequentially and 12% year-over-year, impacted by lower export volumes and production shutdowns [3][15]. - Average realized prices in Brazil were US$994 per ton, down 1% sequentially and 9% year-over-year, with domestic prices showing a 5% decline sequentially [15][17]. Regional Performance - North America saw a 3% sequential increase in shipments, driven by stable backlogs in key industries, but pricing was weaker, with average realized prices at US$1,180 per ton, down 6% sequentially [21][23]. - South America experienced a 10% sequential increase in shipments, but overall demand remains weak, leading to a 25% decline in EBITDA sequentially [28][29]. - The specialty steel segment showed a sequential improvement in shipments, with EBITDA rising 17% sequentially despite lower realized prices [32][33]. Management Outlook - Management is optimistic about demand recovery in Brazil's auto and construction sectors, expecting lower imports in the second half of 2024 due to government tariff adjustments [6][8]. - Cost reduction initiatives are underway, aiming for R$1 billion in savings in Brazil and R$1.5 billion company-wide [3][6]. - A new share buyback program has been approved, indicating management's confidence in future cash generation [35].

02 August 2024 J P M O R G A N Global Rates Strategy Fabio Bassi AC (44-20) 7134-1989 fabio.bassi@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Elisabetta Ferrara (44-20) 7134-2765 elisabetta.ferrara@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Overview When direction is clear, it is all about speed and destination Increasing confidence on the broad disinflation dynamic across DM has driven a repricing of monetary policy expectations, with a sharp acceleration recently on combination of central bank rhetoric and macro ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish duration bias over the medium term, indicating a favorable outlook for long-duration investments [5][16][31]. Core Insights - The global easing cycle is underway, with most central banks expected to cut rates, particularly the ECB, which is projected to implement further cuts in September [9][10][14]. - The €STR curve is pricing in cumulative cuts of 28bp and 70bp by September and December meetings, respectively, and around 160bp by year-end 2025, reflecting a dovish outlook [10][11][14]. - The report highlights a significant decline in yields, particularly in the Euro area, with 1Yx1Y €STR yields dropping approximately 65bp in July [5][9]. - Tactical profits have been taken in various trades, including the Dec24/Dec25 Euribor curve flattener and 1Yx5Y A/A-50 receiver spread, indicating active management of positions in response to market conditions [5][17][19]. Summary by Sections Global Rates Strategy - Yields have declined sharply due to a dovish shift in central bank policies, driven by a deteriorating macro backdrop and weakening labor markets [5][9]. - The report notes a bull-steepening dynamic in the €STR forward yields, with a significant drop in yields observed [6][9]. - The Fed is expected to initiate an easing cycle in September, with a cumulative cut forecast of 125bp this year [9][14]. Tactical Recommendations - The report recommends holding a long-end steepening view and entering into various swap curve steepeners, reflecting a strategy to capitalize on expected yield movements [5][36][37]. - Tactical profits have been taken in several positions, including the Dec25/Dec26 conditional bull steepener, indicating a proactive approach to managing risk and returns [21][23]. - The report suggests hedging against potential hard landing scenarios through conditional bull-belly cheapeners [31][35]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the changing dynamics of swap flies, noting a decline in their positive directionality to yields, which is typical during easing cycles [23][25]. - Swap spreads have widened across the curve, with a modest outperformance in the belly, reflecting market reactions to macroeconomic conditions [38][40]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators, as they will influence the volatility and direction of swap spreads [41][42].

Global Emerging Markets Research 01 August 2024 J P M O R G A N For Dollar's Sake: Emerging Markets Defy De-dollarization • US dollar bank deposits in Emerging Markets are an overlooked but critical barometer of the US dollar's role as a global reserve currency. • This is because dollar-denominated deposits represent the genuine confidence of the private sector in the dollar as a store of value, unlike official holdings, which may be swayed by geopolitical and other non-economic considerations. • Dollar-den ...

Global Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy 1 August 2024 Relative Value Single Stock Volatility Ranking Results for 3M tenor options Global Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy Esmail AfsahAC (44-20) 7742-9231 esmail.afsah@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Davide Silvestrini (44-20) 7134-4082 davide.silvestrini@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies c ...

J P M O R G A N Global Quantitative & Derivatives Strategy 02 August 2024 European Q-Score with a Derivatives Overlay Options strategies combining Quant + Derivatives models • Buy Calls – buy option contracts for the right to buy UBS, Intesa Sanpaolo, Deutsche Bank and Rio Tinto are the stocks that screen most attractive in the JPM European Q-Score stock-picking model; they have a good combined rank. Additionally, these stocks also rank as relatively cheap based on their option richness. The combination of ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that risk premia in Israel's local markets are currently viewed as sufficient, with a strong likelihood of intervention from the Bank of Israel if geopolitical tensions escalate further [1][14]. Core Insights - Risk premia in Israel's local markets are on par with or exceed levels observed in October 2023, reflecting heightened geopolitical risks [1][4]. - The USDILS spot is trading significantly above its fair value, with a deviation of 17%, the highest since October 2023 [4][14]. - The spread of 10-year ILGOVs to 10-year USTs has reached 95 basis points, the widest in 10 years, and 124 basis points above the average spread since 2015 [1][14]. - The Bank of Israel is expected to intervene in the FX market if USDILS approaches 4.00, similar to the $8.2 billion sold in October 2023 [1][14]. - Current yields on 10-year ILGOVs are considered 3-4 standard deviations cheap compared to forward-looking fair value estimates [17][19]. Summary by Sections FX Market Analysis - The USDILS is trading with a significant deviation from fair value, indicating a demand for USD liquidity [4][8]. - FX implied yields have dropped significantly below the Bank of Israel's policy rate, suggesting market stress [8][10]. Bond Market Insights - The 10-year ILGOV yield has increased by 21 basis points to 4.95%, underperforming compared to global trends [14][19]. - The 10-year ILGOV ASW spreads are at 39 basis points, well above the long-run average of 8 basis points since 2012 [14][16]. - Bottom-up models suggest that current bond yields are 94 basis points cheap to end-2024 fair value and 125 basis points cheap to mid-2025 fair value [17][19]. Market Expectations - The market is pricing only a modest 50 basis point cutting cycle for the Bank of Israel, contrasting with expectations for a deeper Fed easing cycle [19][20]. - The persistently rising spread of market-priced BoI-Fed policy rate spreads indicates elevated front-end ILS rates premia [19][20].