ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Equities Greater China Banks Daily Far East Horizon H124 results; Chengdu eased criteria for first-home mortgages; Number of listed residential foreclosure houses up by 12%+ YoY in H124 China Banks Far East Horizon: 1H24 earnings missed on macro headwinds & non-core items Far East Horizon (FEH) reported net profit to common shareholders of Rmb2,085m in 1H24, -32% YoY/ -33% HoH, a large miss to our expectation of single-digit percentage decline. Nevertheless ...

China's Manufacturing Capacity - Seven global manufacturing industries represent 22% of China's GDP growth[2] - Over 50% of capacity in five sectors operates at zero or negative cash margins[2] - Solar and lithium batteries are closest to reaching a supply/demand inflection point, while electric vehicles and power semiconductors are the furthest[2] Investment Ratings and Relationships - Goldman Sachs has investment ratings on 2,925 equity securities as of July 1, 2024[8] - 48% of ratings are Buy, 35% are Hold, and 17% are Sell[10] - 64% of Buy-rated companies have investment banking relationships with Goldman Sachs, compared to 57% for Hold and 41% for Sell[10] Research and Disclosures - Goldman Sachs' Quantum database provides detailed financial statement histories and forecasts for in-depth analysis[7] - Analysts certify that their views are personal and not influenced by compensation[4] - Research reports are based on public information and are subject to change without prior notification[17]

Global Commodities Northern summer energy demand drives down global commodity availability - in fundamental contrast to the BCOM crunch • Global commodity inventory availability declined by -0.9% MOM through July to a three-month low of 64.3 days-of-use, from 64.9 days-ofuse in June, as rising energy demand through the Northern summer and declining crude & product inventories weighed on availability. On an ExChina basis (Ex-China CIM), the monitor, which is a proxy for globally tradeable inventories, was st ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Sydney City Fringe office market, highlighting strong demand and limited supply as key factors driving investment interest. Core Insights - The Sydney City Fringe is increasingly becoming a preferred destination for occupiers and investors due to its favorable demographic profile and proximity to major health and education precincts [2][12] - There is a significant undersupply of prime office stock in the fringe, with prime grade space accounting for under 40% of total stock compared to 64% in the CBD [8][12] - Overall vacancy rates in the fringe markets are tracking below those in the Sydney CBD, indicating strong occupier demand [13][14] - The rental gap between fringe locations and the CBD is narrowing, with current discounts significantly reduced from previous years [14][15] Summary by Sections Economic Drivers - The gross regional product in the City of Sydney reached $141.7 billion in 2023, with a growth rate of 3.4% per annum over the past two decades, significantly outpacing Greater Sydney's growth [4][5] - Population growth in inner Sydney has been robust, with a 53% increase over the past 20 years, compared to 29% for Greater Sydney [5][6] Demographics - The city fringe has a relatively young and highly educated population, with over 42% aged between 20 and 34 years and around half holding a bachelor's degree [7] - High-income earners are more prevalent in the fringe, with 20% of residents in Darlinghurst earning over $3,000 weekly, compared to 7.5% for Greater Sydney [7] Supply and Demand - The development pipeline in the fringe is limited, with only boutique projects anticipated, leading to a continued undersupply of prime office space [9][10] - Recent developments have shown strong pre-commitment rates, indicating a healthy demand for new quality office spaces [9] Rental Trends - Average net face rents for prime space range between $700 and $1,000 per square meter, with Surry Hills experiencing a 4.5% growth over the past year [14] - The current rental discount between Surry Hills and the CBD is 38%, down from 50% in 2017, indicating a tightening rental market [14] Investment Activity - Investment volumes in 2023 were subdued at $98.3 million, but activity has improved in 2024 with transactions totaling $135 million [17][19] - Prime office yields in the fringe markets range between 6.00% and 7.50%, with strong interest in high-quality assets [18] Future Outlook - The report anticipates further rental growth as occupier demand remains strong amidst limited new supply, with the potential for the fringe markets to mature and evolve [15][20]

Strong cities City attractiveness, office market, HR trends Q1 2024 knightfrank.com.pl/en/research Prepared in cooperation with The office market sentiment, the investment potential of the city and the labour market. Wrocław CITY ATTRACTIVENESS Wrocław 293 sq km City area Population 674,100 (30.06.2023, GUS) Population forecast 611,359 (2030) 577,658 (2050) Migration balance (+) 1.4 (12.2021) Unemployment rate 1.7% (02.2024, GUS) GDP growth 8.5% GDP per capita PLN 104,360 (gross) Average salary (gross) PLN ...

Retail Sales Dashboard June 2024 A monthly overview of UK retail sales performance, including key metrics on core sub-sectors and e-commerce. Headline Figures 0.1%0 Sales value (amount spent) growth June 2024 vs. June 2023 *Seasonally adjusted, excluding fuel Including fuel +0.6% 00:W0 Sales volume (items purchased) growth June 2024 vs. June 2023 *Seasonally adjusted, excluding fuel Including fuel -0.2% +0.590 Sales value (amount spent) growth Most recent 3 months YoY growth Sales volume (items purchased) g ...

Feedstocks for Thought European Chemicals | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | European Credit – Basic Resources and General Industrials | | | Ed McGuinness, CFA AC | | | (44-20) 7134-0456 ed.mcguinness ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral investment rating across all bonds for Gerdau, indicating a cautious outlook despite strong credit metrics and liquidity [4][8][9]. Core Insights - Gerdau's results were better than expected in a challenging steel environment, with EBITDA of US$503 million falling 11% sequentially and 34% year-over-year [5][6]. - The company generated US$40 million in cash during the quarter, an improvement from a US$51 million cash burn in the previous quarter, driven by smaller working capital consumption [6][35]. - Management expects a positive outlook for most business units in the second half of 2024, with anticipated demand recovery in Brazil and North America [6][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Gerdau's EBITDA margin deteriorated from 17.4% in Q1 2024 to 15.8% in Q2 2024, reflecting pressures from pricing and costs [5][6]. - Total shipments in Brazil fell by 9% sequentially and 12% year-over-year, impacted by lower export volumes and production shutdowns [3][15]. - Average realized prices in Brazil were US$994 per ton, down 1% sequentially and 9% year-over-year, with domestic prices showing a 5% decline sequentially [15][17]. Regional Performance - North America saw a 3% sequential increase in shipments, driven by stable backlogs in key industries, but pricing was weaker, with average realized prices at US$1,180 per ton, down 6% sequentially [21][23]. - South America experienced a 10% sequential increase in shipments, but overall demand remains weak, leading to a 25% decline in EBITDA sequentially [28][29]. - The specialty steel segment showed a sequential improvement in shipments, with EBITDA rising 17% sequentially despite lower realized prices [32][33]. Management Outlook - Management is optimistic about demand recovery in Brazil's auto and construction sectors, expecting lower imports in the second half of 2024 due to government tariff adjustments [6][8]. - Cost reduction initiatives are underway, aiming for R$1 billion in savings in Brazil and R$1.5 billion company-wide [3][6]. - A new share buyback program has been approved, indicating management's confidence in future cash generation [35].

02 August 2024 J P M O R G A N Global Rates Strategy Fabio Bassi AC (44-20) 7134-1989 fabio.bassi@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Elisabetta Ferrara (44-20) 7134-2765 elisabetta.ferrara@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Overview When direction is clear, it is all about speed and destination Increasing confidence on the broad disinflation dynamic across DM has driven a repricing of monetary policy expectations, with a sharp acceleration recently on combination of central bank rhetoric and macro ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish duration bias over the medium term, indicating a favorable outlook for long-duration investments [5][16][31]. Core Insights - The global easing cycle is underway, with most central banks expected to cut rates, particularly the ECB, which is projected to implement further cuts in September [9][10][14]. - The €STR curve is pricing in cumulative cuts of 28bp and 70bp by September and December meetings, respectively, and around 160bp by year-end 2025, reflecting a dovish outlook [10][11][14]. - The report highlights a significant decline in yields, particularly in the Euro area, with 1Yx1Y €STR yields dropping approximately 65bp in July [5][9]. - Tactical profits have been taken in various trades, including the Dec24/Dec25 Euribor curve flattener and 1Yx5Y A/A-50 receiver spread, indicating active management of positions in response to market conditions [5][17][19]. Summary by Sections Global Rates Strategy - Yields have declined sharply due to a dovish shift in central bank policies, driven by a deteriorating macro backdrop and weakening labor markets [5][9]. - The report notes a bull-steepening dynamic in the €STR forward yields, with a significant drop in yields observed [6][9]. - The Fed is expected to initiate an easing cycle in September, with a cumulative cut forecast of 125bp this year [9][14]. Tactical Recommendations - The report recommends holding a long-end steepening view and entering into various swap curve steepeners, reflecting a strategy to capitalize on expected yield movements [5][36][37]. - Tactical profits have been taken in several positions, including the Dec25/Dec26 conditional bull steepener, indicating a proactive approach to managing risk and returns [21][23]. - The report suggests hedging against potential hard landing scenarios through conditional bull-belly cheapeners [31][35]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the changing dynamics of swap flies, noting a decline in their positive directionality to yields, which is typical during easing cycles [23][25]. - Swap spreads have widened across the curve, with a modest outperformance in the belly, reflecting market reactions to macroeconomic conditions [38][40]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators, as they will influence the volatility and direction of swap spreads [41][42].