FICC Research Economics 8 August 2024 US CPI Inflation Preview (July 2024 CPI) Core CPI expected to have firmed in July We look for firming in July core CPI inflation to 0.21% m/m SA, from an unusually soft 0.06% reading in June. We expect a payback in shelter inflation and less deflation in core goods to drive this acceleration. For headline CPI, we look for a 0.21% m/m SA increase and expect the NSA index to print at 314.817. • We expect US headline CPI to have risen 0.21% m/m SA in July (from -0.06% in J ...

Deutsche Bank Research Global Rates Global Fixed Income Weekly Date 26 July 2024 Strategy Update This publication is a compilation of key research reports published over the past week. Francis Yared Strategist Matthew Raskin Strategist Soniya Sadeesh Strategist Bernd Volk Strategist Steven Zeng, CFA Strategist Ioannis Sokos Strategist Brian Lu Research Associate Gabriele Cozzi Strategist Mingyue Xin Strategist Deutsche Bank AG IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on US equities, lifting the year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5600 and EPS estimate to $250, with a further target of 5800 for 2025 based on $270 of EPS [6][8]. Core Insights - The earnings momentum remains positive, with a beats-to-misses ratio of 4.6:1, indicating strong performance relative to expectations [5][6]. - The Levkovich Index shows a significant week-over-week decline, indicating a shift towards a more balanced sentiment, although it remains in the euphoria zone [5][25]. - The report highlights the influence of the "Magnificent 7" stocks, which have contributed to two-thirds of the S&P 500 gains this year [6]. Market Outlook - Price remains negative due to flat equity markets and a slight increase in 10-year yields, leading to cross-asset valuation imbalances [4]. - Liquidity is positive, with continued inflows into domestic equity funds and ETFs [4]. - Sentiment is negative, but there is potential for a neutral reading in the coming weeks if current conditions persist [5][6]. Sector Recommendations - Real Estate and Financials have been upgraded to Overweight, joining Consumer Discretionary, while Industrials have been lowered to Market Weight [7]. - Health Care and Materials remain Underweight, indicating a cautious stance on these sectors [7]. Earnings Performance - Over 90% of the S&P 500 has reported Q2 earnings, with aggregate EPS surprising to the upside by 2% compared to expectations [5][33]. - The report details sector-specific performance, with notable earnings growth in Consumer Discretionary and Financials [33][34]. Valuation Metrics - The S&P 500 is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 22.4, which is in the 89th percentile historically, indicating high valuations [14]. - Forward 1-year returns based on current valuation metrics suggest a median return of 6.6% for the S&P 500 [14]. Economic Indicators - The report notes that corporate preparedness for an economic slowdown and improvements in supply chains could positively impact market performance [18]. - The potential for downside surprise inflation prints without weaker macro data is highlighted as a positive market influence [18].

Prepared for Philip Hu 09 Aug 2024 13:25:01 ET │ 18 pages Japan Equity Strategy Investment strategy with Japan equities returning to an upward trajectory CITI'S TAKE We expect Japan equities to embark on a real recovery in the second half of September after the current period of instability. The themes we highlight for investment strategy in this scenario are 1) recently devalued high-quality names with strong earnings, 2) the decoupling of Japan-US long rates, and 3) elevated visibility on a recovery in do ...

Roundup | Prepared for Philip Hu The SMID Point Friday, 09 August 2024 Company | Industry Company Nevro Corp (NVRO.N) - Upgrading to Neutral: Enthusiasm at a Trough, Guidance Seems Reasonable but Uncertainty Is High With the 2Q24 print (link), we are upgrading NVRO to Neutral from Sell. While the quarter itself was fairly benign, the full-year revenue guidance cut to $400- $405M from $435-$445M was unexpected, sending shares down 44% post print. With shares now down 73% YTD and trading at <0.5x NTM revenue, ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the overall market outlook, indicating a positive expectation for investment returns in the near term [73]. Core Insights - Global PMIs show signs of softening, with the manufacturing PMI slightly below 50, indicating a potential contraction, while the services PMI remains above 50, signaling solid activity [10]. - A global easing cycle is underway as central banks, including the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, have started to cut rates, with expectations for further cuts from the Fed and ECB [15]. - The US economy may already be in a recession, as indicated by rising unemployment rates and a cyclical slowing in the labor market [18]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, increasing the risk of further conflict, which could impact global markets [21]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to delay further rate hikes until at least May 2025 due to recent economic volatility [25]. - The JPY carry trade is under pressure, with expectations of a significant correction in USDJPY, potentially falling below 140 in 2025 [37]. Summary by Sections Global Economics - Global PMIs indicate a slight pullback, with manufacturing PMIs in developed markets below 50, while services PMIs remain robust [10]. - Central banks are beginning a global easing cycle, with inflation risks appearing more contained than in previous quarters [15]. US Economics - The unemployment rate rose to 4.25% in July, suggesting the US economy may be entering a recession [18]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 125 basis points by mid-2025, responding to subdued inflation and a weakening labor market [19]. European Economics - Recent events in the Middle East have heightened the risk of regional conflict, which could have broader implications for global markets [21]. Japan Economics & Rates - The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its current monetary policy for now, with expectations for a rate hike delayed until May 2025 [25]. G10 FX - The report anticipates a significant correction in JPY carry trades, with USDJPY expected to decline substantially over the next few years [37]. Commodities - Oil prices may rebound from recent lows due to geopolitical tensions and potential weather-related disruptions, with Brent prices projected to bounce back to the low-to-mid $80s [44]. US Equity Strategy - The report discusses potential tax policy changes depending on the outcome of upcoming elections, which could impact corporate earnings and market positioning [46]. European / Global Equity Strategy - The report notes a recent correction in global equities, with positioning still vulnerable to negative news, suggesting a cautious approach to buying into weakness [48]. Global Macro Strategy - Concerns about a hard landing for the economy are prevalent, with a neutral equity position recommended until clearer signals emerge [52].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry but provides individual ratings for specific companies such as Banco Santander (Neutral), Concha y Toro (Buy), and CMPC (Buy) [5][18]. Core Insights - In July, Chilean Institutional Investors, particularly Pension Funds and Mutual Funds, were net buyers of local equities, with net purchases of US$65.3 million and US$34.4 million, respectively [3][4]. - The sectors favored by Pension Funds included Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials, with notable investments in Banco Santander, Cencosud, and CMPC [3][5]. - Year-to-date, Pension Funds have net bought US$358 million in Chilean equities, while Mutual Funds have net bought US$339 million [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Pension Funds - Pension Funds had a net buying of US$65.3 million in local equities during July, with total assets under management increasing by 1.7% month-over-month to US$186 billion [3][4]. - The exposure to local equities decreased to 6.4% from 6.6% in June, remaining below the 10-year average of 7.2% [17][18]. - The preferred sectors for Pension Funds were Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials, while they were net sellers in the Utilities sector [4][5]. Mutual Funds - Mutual Funds were net buyers of US$34.4 million in local equities during July, with total assets under management reaching US$76 billion, an increase of 2.8% month-over-month [4][14]. - The exposure to local equities remained stable at 2.1%, which is below the 10-year average of 2.7% [17][18]. - The largest inflows for Mutual Funds were seen in Banco Santander, Bci, and Concha y Toro, while outflows were noted in Cencosud and Entel [16][18]. Combined Flows - The largest combined net flows for companies under coverage were in Banco Santander (+US$29.6 million), Concha y Toro (+US$3.7 million), and CMPC (+US$1.8 million) [5][15]. - The largest outflows were recorded for Cenco Malls (-US$1.1 million), Entel (-US$1.3 million), and Parque Arauco (-US$1.7 million) [5][15].

Equity Research Equity Strategy 9 August 2024 CORE U.S. Equity Strategy Food for Thought: Sector Selection for Rate Reduction Over 13 rate cutting cycles stretching back to the 1980s, Healthcare and Staples outperformed most consistently over the 6 months following the first cut, likely because most of these coincided with recessions. In the 2 "soft landing" cycles of the mid-90s, cyclical and growth sectors performed better after the first cut. | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

12 August 2024 | 1:24PM KST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS): MLCC peers' CY2Q24 results read-across; solid MLCC outlook supporting our positive view In this note, we provide read-across of CY2Q24 results of 4 MLCC peers (Murata, Taiyo Yuden, Yageo, and TDK) to our covered Korean MLCC player, Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO). We believe the read-across from the peers' results were generally positive due to: 1) most of the peers guiding MLCC revenue to sequentially grow ...

12 August 2024 | 9:28AM GST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Jahez International (9526.SE): 1H24: Revenue growth slightly below GSe but new verticals weigh on margins Jahez reported 1H24 results with revenue of SR1.02bn (+22% yoy), 2% below GSe. 1H24 net income came in at SR43mn down 26% yoy, 31% below GSe. There are limited number of consensus estimates. Revenue growth of 22% yoy was driven by 30% increase in total number of orders (to 50.1mn), and higher AOV, which increased to SR61.5 from SR60.4 in 1H23. ...