Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The marriage penalty in South Asia significantly reduces women's labor force participation by 12 percentage points, while the marginal penalty of childbearing is relatively small, indicating that marriage itself imposes constraints on women's employment opportunities [3][15][61] - The findings suggest that social norms and opportunity costs play crucial roles in the marriage penalty, with educated women experiencing smaller penalties compared to those with lower education levels [19][63] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the persistent gender inequality in labor market outcomes, particularly focusing on the marriage penalty and its implications for women's labor force participation in South Asia [7][8] Data and Empirical Strategy - The analysis utilizes data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) across four South Asian countries, employing a pseudo-panel approach to separate marriage and child penalties [23][24][27] Results - The marriage penalty is quantified, revealing that it accounts for 75% of the combined family formation penalty, with the largest effects observed in India [15][41] - Men, in contrast, experience a marriage premium, with an average increase in employment of 12.8 percentage points post-marriage [41][45] Determinants of the Marriage Penalty - The report explores various factors influencing the marriage penalty, including urban versus rural residence, education levels, and gender attitudes [46][50] - Higher education for women significantly mitigates the marriage penalty, while the education of husbands also plays a role in shaping household norms [54][63] Conclusion - The report concludes that the marriage penalty is a significant barrier to female labor force participation in South Asia, driven by both social norms and opportunity costs, and emphasizes the importance of promoting gender equality and education to alleviate these penalties [61][64]

Policy Research Working Paper 10947 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Household and Firm Exposure to Heat and Floods in South Asia Patrick Behrer Jonah Rexer Siddharth Sharma Margaret Triyana South Asia Region Office of the Chief Economist October 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10947 Abstract Climate change is increasing household exposure to extreme heat, floods and other natural disasters. This paper examines the differe ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - Financial deepening, defined as the increase in bank credit relative to GDP, generally leads to a relative increase in carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of GDP across a sample of 125 economies from 1990 to 2019 [2][13][14] - A one-standard-deviation increase in credit-to-GDP results in an increase in CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP by approximately 0.6 percentage points over a five-year horizon, indicating that financial deepening can diminish the decline in CO2 emissions [13][33] - The adverse effects of financial deepening on carbon emissions can be mitigated by stronger institutional environments, including robust environmental regulations and a more market-based financial system [14][40] Summary by Sections Introduction - The transition to a less carbon-intensive economy requires significant investments, with estimates suggesting that global investments in climate mitigation need to rise from $0.9 trillion in 2020 to $5 trillion annually by 2030 [6] - Financial institutions, particularly banks, play a crucial role in directing funds towards green technologies or traditional carbon-intensive investments [7] Data and Methodology - The study utilizes an unbalanced panel dataset of 125 advanced and emerging economies covering the years 1990 to 2019, focusing on CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP and financial deepening measured by credit-to-GDP [16][18] - The empirical methodology employs local projections to assess the impact of financial deepening on CO2 emissions, allowing for the examination of responses over a five-year horizon [26][27] Results - The findings indicate that financial deepening contributes to a persistent increase in CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP, with the most significant effects observed in the first year following an increase in credit-to-GDP [33] - Conditional results reveal that countries with stronger environmental regulations and a higher rule of law index experience less increase in CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP due to financial deepening [35][37] - The analysis shows that the impact of financial deepening varies based on the initial carbon intensity of production, with different institutional factors playing a role in mitigating emissions [41][42] Robustness Checks - Various robustness checks confirm the baseline findings, including the use of alternative measures of financial deepening and focusing on credit boom episodes, which show even more pronounced adverse effects on CO2 emissions [47][49][52]

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10945 Identifying Growth Accelerations Bram Gootjes Jakob de Haan Kersten Stamm Shu Yu Public Disclosure Authorized Development Economics Prospects Group October 2024 Policy Research Working Paper 10945 Abstract This paper introduces a new method to identify output growth accelerations that integrates elements of both the "criteria-based" and "break-testing" approaches, which are prevalent in ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed. Core Insights - The implementation of a carbon tax in the Dominican Republic is expected to impact aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) through resource allocation, with varying effects depending on existing market distortions among firms [4][9][10]. - A carbon tax is more effective when applied to fuels rather than electricity, leading to productivity gains for most sectors by reallocating resources from low-productivity to high-productivity firms [4][15]. - The study emphasizes the importance of considering existing input market distortions when evaluating the impact of environmental taxes [4][10]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The Dominican Republic aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 27% by 2030, and the introduction of a carbon tax is considered a potential regulatory intervention to incentivize firms to reduce fossil fuel consumption [8][9]. Theoretical Framework - The report develops a model to analyze how a carbon tax affects firms' energy input consumption and overall productivity, highlighting the heterogeneous impact based on firms' existing market distortions [12][24]. Empirical Analysis - Utilizing detailed firm-level data from 2009 to 2018, the analysis indicates that a carbon tax could generate approximately $920 million in revenue if set at $110 per ton of CO2, representing about 10% of total taxes collected in 2018 [13][32]. - The sectors most affected by the carbon tax are identified as transport, cement, and hospitality, which have significant carbon emissions footprints [13][37]. Results and Discussion - The findings suggest that the introduction of a carbon tax could shift the burden of market distortions from high productivity firms to low productivity ones, potentially increasing aggregate TFP for most sectors [4][15]. - The report concludes that the effectiveness of a carbon tax is contingent upon the existing distortions in energy consumption and the productivity levels of firms within the Dominican Republic [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The 2024 Economic Update for Niger highlights significant economic and poverty trends, focusing on the impact of political instability and the need for investment in education to foster inclusive growth [15][18]. Economic and Poverty Developments and Outlook - In 2023, Niger experienced a political crisis leading to sanctions that severely impacted economic growth, reducing GDP growth to 2.0 percent, down from a projected 6.9 percent [34][31]. - The sanctions included trade bans and financial restrictions, which resulted in a loss of approximately 7.5 percent of GDP in external financing [33][32]. - Despite these challenges, total agricultural production expanded, demonstrating some resilience in the economy [17]. - The extreme poverty rate remained unchanged at 48.4 percent, with food insecurity affecting 2.3 million people, or 8.9 percent of the population [17][18]. - The outlook for 2024 anticipates a recovery in GDP growth to 5.7 percent, driven by large-scale oil exports, although inflation is projected to rise to 8.5 percent due to various factors including border closures [18][17]. Investing in Education for Inclusive Growth - The report emphasizes the critical need for investment in education to improve human capital development, which is essential for sustainable economic growth [18][19]. - Key challenges in the education sector include inadequate infrastructure, insecurity leading to school closures, and low enrollment rates, particularly for girls [19][20]. - The government program to improve education quality is estimated to cost around 0.26 percent of GDP annually, but additional funding will be necessary to meet the growing demand for classrooms and qualified teachers [20][21]. - A comprehensive policy agenda is recommended to address these challenges, with potential financing options including improved spending efficiency and mobilizing external financing [20][22].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the energy sector Core Insights - The Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) aims to support low- and middle-income countries in achieving universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy by 2030, while also accelerating the energy transition and ensuring resilience against climate change impacts [5][28][39] Summary by Sections 1. The Evolving Global Context - The pandemic has hindered progress towards poverty reduction and achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with 685 million people lacking electricity access in 2022 [15][18] - Achieving SDG 2030 targets requires an annual investment of $5.4 to $6.4 trillion, with an additional $2.4 trillion needed to address climate change and other global challenges [17][20] 2. Evolving World Bank Context - The World Bank is adopting a new approach to align its offerings and increase energy sector financing, aiming to triple energy lending by 2030 [22][23] 3. The Unique Role of ESMAP in the Global Energy Landscape - ESMAP has evolved from providing hands-on advice during the 1970s energy crisis to addressing modern challenges such as energy access, climate change, and gender mainstreaming [24][25] - ESMAP's achievements from FY2021-24 include mobilizing $19 billion in external financing and supporting the installation of 16.5 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity [27] 4. ESMAP Focus Areas - ESMAP's focus areas include energy access (electricity and clean cooking), energy transition, and foundations for decarbonized energy systems [39] - The report highlights the need for catalytic incentives and tailored solutions to achieve universal energy access, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected regions [41][52] 5. ESMAP's Updated Theory of Change - ESMAP's updated Theory of Change emphasizes supportive government policies, public and private investments, and data-driven decision-making to achieve higher-level results [30][34] 6. Financing the ESMAP Business Plan FY2025–30 - The proposed budget for the FY2025–30 Business Plan includes various budget scenarios to support ESMAP's objectives [6][11]

Industry Investment Rating - The report identifies a critical tax-to-GDP ratio threshold of around 12.5% for future economic growth acceleration, with a slightly higher threshold of 13% for inclusive growth [9] - Countries transitioning from low-income to middle-income status typically achieve an average tax-to-GDP ratio of 15% in the decade prior to the shift [10] Core Findings - A tax-to-GDP ratio of 15% is crucial for countries transitioning from low- to middle-income status, with significant benefits observed when tax collection increases from 7% to 15% of GDP [10][11] - Increasing tax revenue from 7% to 15% of GDP is associated with an additional 10 percentage points of cumulative growth over the next ten years and a reduction in the prosperity gap by about half [11][35] Mechanisms of Tax Impact on Growth - Higher tax revenues lead to increased investment in health and education, enhancing productivity and reducing economic volatility [10][37] - A tax-to-GDP ratio of 15% is associated with lower government spending volatility and reduced real GDP growth volatility, contributing to economic stability [49][50] Transitioning to Higher Income Status - Countries transitioning from low-income to lower-middle-income status achieve a critical tax-to-GDP ratio of 15%, reflecting a 3-4 percentage point increase over the decade before transitioning [56] - The average tax-to-GDP ratio increases to 23.4% and 25% when transitioning from lower-middle-income to upper-middle-income and from upper-middle-income to high-income groups, respectively [56]

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10941 Digitalization and Inclusive Growth A Review of the Evidence Gaurav Nayyar Regina Pleninger Dana Vorisek Shu Yu Prosperity Practice Group Office of the Chief Economist October 2024 A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, click here for direct access. Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10941 Abstract ...

Industry Overview - Argentina has exhibited exceptionally high fiscal procyclicality and GDP volatility, ranking among the most volatile economies globally, with economic recessions occurring approximately 33% of the time over the past seven decades [9] - The country's fiscal policy has historically been highly procyclical, characterized by persistent fiscal deficits that exacerbate economic fluctuations and hinder stable growth, ranking among the top four nations in terms of public spending and GDP cyclicality correlation over the past 22 years [9] - Public spending in Argentina rose significantly from 25% of GDP in 2005 to 41% of GDP in 2016, primarily driven by recurrent expenditures, outpacing revenue and leading to fiscal imbalances, liquidity constraints, and debt restructuring [9] Fiscal Policy Analysis - Argentina's fiscal procyclicality stems primarily from expenditure policies, particularly those related to pensions and public wages, with both influenced by the "price" effect and the "quantity" effect, especially for the public wage bill [2][13] - The cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) in Argentina has significantly declined, with discretionary policies being more pronounced during economic booms, and the country's heavy reliance on agricultural commodities exacerbates procyclicality [2][17] - Argentina's unconventional taxes, such as export duties and financial transaction taxes, exhibit a negative correlation with the economic cycle, contributing to fiscal procyclicality [16][80] Public Spending Breakdown - Argentina's public wage bill has displayed strong procyclicality, driven by both "price" and "quantity" effects, with the number of public servants and their average wage showing pronounced procyclical behavior at both national and subnational levels [15][46] - Pension spending in Argentina is highly procyclical, influenced by erratic indexation mechanisms and the "price" effect, with the real value of benefits strongly linked to the economic cycle [14][64] - Public investment and consumption in Argentina have exhibited strong procyclical tendencies, with correlations of 0.59 and 0.61, respectively, over the past two decades [41] Tax Policy Analysis - Argentina's traditional tax sources, such as CIT, PIT, and VAT, exhibit a relatively acyclical policy stance, with correlations between changes in tax rates and real GDP being positive but not statistically significant [76] - Unconventional taxes, including export duties and financial transaction taxes, contribute significantly to Argentina's tax revenue, with export duties showing a weak but negative correlation with the economic cycle, indicating procyclical behavior [80] - The tax structure in Argentina deviates from international standards, with unconventional taxes accounting for nearly one-third of total tax revenue, limiting the effectiveness of traditional tax rate cyclicality analysis [72] Structural Fiscal Balance - The structural budget balance (CAPB) in Argentina has deteriorated significantly over the past decades, even prior to the conclusion of the commodities super-cycle, indicating the presence of procyclical discretionary policies [17] - During the commodities super-cycle, cyclical revenues from commodities-related export duties contributed nearly 1.1% of GDP in additional receipts, with a hypothetical stabilization fund potentially generating revenue equivalent to 2% of GDP between 2006 and 2008 [102] - Argentina's fiscal policy has exhibited a procyclical nature, failing to effectively stabilize the economy, with expansionary fiscal policies during economic upswings hindering improvements in savings and raising sustainability concerns [111]