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Questioning the Climate Change Age Gap
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-09-24 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The paper challenges the widely held belief that younger generations are more concerned about climate change than older generations, presenting evidence that older individuals may be equally or more concerned about climate change [2][9][46] - The findings indicate that older respondents are more likely to oppose tax increases for climate policies, reflecting a general decline in willingness to pay taxes with age rather than a specific aversion to climate change financing [9][60] - The study utilizes data from 38 countries in Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East, collected during the 2023 Life in Transition Survey, to analyze the relationship between age and climate change attitudes [2][33] Summary by Sections Introduction - The concept of a "climate change age gap" is introduced, suggesting that younger people are perceived to care more about climate change due to their longer expected lifespan under adverse conditions [6][8] - The paper aims to explore this notion and its implications for climate policy implementation [6][7] Literature Review - Previous studies show mixed results regarding age as a predictor of climate change beliefs, with some indicating younger individuals are more concerned while others find minimal differences [12][14][16] - The literature highlights various socio-structural and psychological factors influencing climate change beliefs across different age groups [12][18] Theoretical Framework - A theoretical model is developed to explain how age-related factors influence perceptions and willingness to act on climate change [21][26] - The model suggests that older individuals may have heightened concerns about climate change impacts due to their increased vulnerability [21][30] Data - The analysis is based on the 2023 Life in Transition Survey, which includes a representative sample from 38 countries, focusing on climate beliefs and actions [33][34] - Key questions assess personal beliefs about climate change and willingness to support government actions through taxes [33][35] Empirical Results - The results show that older individuals are generally more concerned about climate change impacts on future generations but are less willing to pay higher taxes for climate policies [46][60] - A significant age gradient is observed in willingness to support climate change actions, with younger individuals showing higher willingness to pay [44][60] Conclusion - The study concludes that the perceived age gap in climate change concern may be overstated, with older individuals demonstrating significant concern but lower willingness to finance climate actions through taxes [9][60] - The findings suggest that policymakers should consider these dynamics when designing climate policies to ensure broad support across age groups [9][60]
Regenerative Agriculture in Practice
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-09-24 23:03
Policy Research Working Paper 10919 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Regenerative Agriculture in Practice | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | A Review | | | | | | Andrew Dabalen | | | Aparajita Goyal | | | Ruozi Song | Africa Region Office of the Chief Economist September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10919 Abstract Regenerative agriculture, a farming approach that focuses on soil health ...
JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-110319185
摩根大通· 2024-09-24 03:55
Investment Rating - The report suggests a likely 50 basis points (bp) cut in the Fed funds rate at the upcoming FOMC meeting, indicating a positive investment outlook for the sector [2][4][6]. Core Insights - The Fed is expected to initiate an easing cycle, with a strong case for a 50bp cut due to current restrictive policy levels and a shift in risk balance [4][5][6]. - Economic projections indicate a forecasted GDP growth of 2.1% for 2024, with an unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.2% [7]. - The report anticipates a total of 100bp of cuts in 2024 and 150bp in 2025, supporting a soft landing for the economy [6][8]. Economic Data Summary - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise by 0.14% month-over-month, with a year-over-year rate of 2.7% [43][48]. - Retail sales are expected to show a modest increase of 0.3% excluding autos, while overall retail sales may decline by 0.2% due to lower vehicle sales [25][26]. - Industrial production is forecasted to increase by 0.8% month-over-month, rebounding from previous declines [22][24]. - Jobless claims are projected to fall to 225,000, indicating a stable labor market [32][33]. Inflation and Price Trends - CPI inflation showed a core increase of 0.28% month-over-month, stabilizing the year-over-year rate at 3.2% [43][44]. - Food prices rose by 0.1% month-over-month, while energy prices declined by 0.8% [45][48]. - The report highlights a significant increase in airline fares by 3.9% month-over-month, marking the largest gain in over two years [45]. Housing Market Insights - Existing home sales are expected to decline by 2.5% month-over-month, reflecting a slowdown in the housing market [37][38]. - Housing starts are projected to rebound by 6-7% month-over-month, reversing previous declines attributed to weather impacts [29][31]. Manufacturing Sector Overview - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to edge up to -5.0, indicating slight improvement in manufacturing conditions [34][35]. - The employment index in manufacturing remains weak, suggesting ongoing challenges in the labor market [23]. Consumer Sentiment and Spending - Consumer sentiment is gradually improving, with expectations for inflation remaining stable [46]. - The report indicates that lower gasoline prices may support real spending in the upcoming quarter [25].
European Economic Comment _ECB Stays data dependent, we see...-110299400
Ubs Securities· 2024-09-24 03:55
ab 12 September 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | Eu ...
JPMorgan Econ FI-US Fixed Income Overview Stuck here in the middle with you-110319151
摩根大通· 2024-09-24 03:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the fixed income market, particularly favoring a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming FOMC meeting [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.28% in August, driven by an increase in Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER), which supports the expectation of a rate cut [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to guide markets towards further easing, with expectations of 100 basis points of cuts by the end of 2024 and an additional 150 basis points in 2025 [1][9]. - The report highlights a preference for steepening trades in the Treasury curve, particularly 3s/30s steepeners, as a core bullish view [1][10]. Economic Overview - The labor market is showing signs of slowing, with private payrolls dropping below 100,000, prompting a shift in the Fed's reaction function [4][9]. - GDP growth is projected to remain stable at 1.8%, with core PCE inflation expected to taper to 2.0% by 2026 [9][10]. Treasury and Interest Rate Derivatives - The report discusses the potential for a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut, with a preference for positioning in both higher and lower yield scenarios [1][10]. - Asymmetric positioning strategies are recommended, including conditional flatteners and steepeners based on the anticipated rate cut size [10][12]. Securitized Products - Mortgage spreads are tight, with performance driven by the onset of the easing cycle and declining volatility [1][17]. - Regulatory changes regarding Basel III are expected to impact mortgage loan risk weights, potentially reducing securitization activity [19][21]. Corporate Credit - High-grade (HG) credit spreads are expected to remain stable as fundamentals improve alongside falling rates, with a positive outlook for returns [1][26]. - High yield (HY) spreads have increased slightly, but historical performance suggests strong returns in the months following a rate cut [26][28]. Near-term Catalysts - Key upcoming economic indicators include August retail sales, the September FOMC meeting, and employment data [1][10].
Embrace data to accelerate sustainability
Kai Jie Yan Jiu Yuan· 2024-09-24 00:33
Embrace data to accelerate sustainability Contents Executive summary 4 The business case for sustainability is compelling 5 Poor reporting and data challenges obscure sustainability efforts 7 Integrate ESG data for enhanced transparency 10 Conclusion 13 Methodology 14 Partner with Capgemini 16 Ask the experts 17 Key contacts 18 Acknowledgments 19 Endnotes 20 2 Embrace Data to Accelerate Sustainability Introduction As the planet warms, climaterelated disasters and illnesses are becoming more frequent. The co ...
Nature & Biodiversity
Goldman Sachs· 2024-09-23 23:23
Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry but indicates that companies with stronger relative Nature Performance trade at modest premiums to laggard peers [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing focus on Nature and Biodiversity as a critical area for corporate sustainability strategies and sustainable investors, driven by various catalysts such as the need for Nature-based solutions and the physical and financial risks associated with biodiversity loss [5][6][8]. - The GS SUSTAIN Nature Tool is introduced as a framework to measure corporate transparency and performance related to biodiversity, aiming to provide investors with a clearer understanding of companies' impacts on nature [10][33]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Nature is gaining momentum as a focus area for corporate sustainability strategies, with five catalysts identified: the need for Nature-based solutions, efficiency improvements, risks of biodiversity loss, permitting processes for land development, and responses to the Global Biodiversity Framework [5][6][19]. GS SUSTAIN Nature Tool - The GS SUSTAIN Nature Tool measures corporate exposure, transparency, and performance related to biodiversity through a framework that includes assessing business activities, plans, and performance metrics [10][33]. Biodiversity Transparency and Performance - The report emphasizes that while data on biodiversity is scarce, existing data can provide context for company analysis, revealing that few companies have sector-leading plans and performance on relevant indicators [11][12]. - Companies with strong Nature Performance are observed to trade at a premium, while those with strong transparency plans tend to trade at a discount [13][24]. Stock Performance - Nature Performance leaders have underperformed compared to laggard peers and the MSCI ACWI since early 2022, indicating potential discovery value for companies with strong performance-driven outcomes [14][40]. - Nature Plan/Transparency leaders have shown similar stock performance to laggards, with both outperforming the MSCI ACWI in certain sectors [41][44]. Nature & Biodiversity Adopters and Enablers - Investors are likely to focus on sectors with high potential negative impacts on biodiversity, such as Food & Beverage and Metals & Mining [22]. - Companies providing adaptive solutions to mitigate nature-related risks are expected to gain investor favor, highlighting the importance of water resiliency, land management, and technology solutions [23][24]. GS SUSTAIN Nature Framework and Relative Valuation - The report notes that while Nature Performance leaders trade at a premium, Nature Plan leaders consistently trade at a discount, suggesting that the market rewards performance-driven outcomes over mere disclosure [24][35].
Togo’s Agriculture and Infrastructure Public Finance Review (PFR)
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-09-23 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the agriculture and rural connectivity sectors in Togo. Core Insights - The Public Finance Review emphasizes the need for improved public investment management to accelerate rural development and structural transformation in Togo, where 50% of the population living under the national poverty line relies on agriculture as their primary income source [12][29]. - The report highlights that low agricultural productivity and inadequate rural connectivity hinder economic growth and poverty reduction, necessitating a holistic approach that combines agricultural advancements with infrastructure development [12][29]. - It identifies that public investment can mobilize private sector investment, especially when fiscal constraints limit public funding, and suggests reforms to enhance the business environment and governance [14][28]. Summary by Sections Country Context and Challenges - Togo has faced significant challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and global trade disruptions, but managed to maintain robust growth with public investment reaching 9.7% of GDP in 2022, up from 3.2% in 2019 [19]. - Despite growth, structural transformation has been limited, with stagnant agricultural productivity and poor connectivity between rural and urban areas contributing to persistent poverty [19][20]. Public Investment Management and Structural Transformation - The report assesses the quality of public investment management in Togo, noting that while there has been progress in project selectivity, inefficiencies remain in budgeting and transparency [40]. - It emphasizes that improving public investment efficiency could significantly enhance infrastructure quality without additional budget resources, with potential gains of 14% to 37% by matching the efficiency of peer countries [13][43]. Agriculture Sector - The agriculture sector in Togo is characterized by low productivity, with only 37% of households using fertilizers and 8% using improved seeds, leading to reliance on self-subsistence farming [20][21]. - The report suggests that improving access to agricultural inputs and enhancing public sector governance are critical for boosting productivity and food security [15][16]. Energy Sector - Rural electrification is a major constraint, with only 25% of the rural population having access to electricity, which limits agricultural modernization and productivity [17][25]. - The report recommends reforms in the electricity tariff structure and governance of public utilities to improve rural electrification and support renewable energy solutions [17][25]. Transport Sector - Despite significant investments in rural road connectivity, many roads remain unpaved and poorly maintained, with 37% of the rural population living more than two kilometers from an all-weather road [18][26]. - The report calls for improved road asset management and prioritization of climate-resilient road designs to enhance rural access and agricultural productivity [18][26].
Why Did Support for Climate Policies Decline in Europe and Central Asia?
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-09-23 23:03
Policy Research Working Paper 10914 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|--------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | Why Did Support for Climate Policies | | | | | | Decline in Europe and Central Asia? | | | | | | | | | | | | Alexandru Cojocaru | | | | | | Michael Lokshin Iván Torre | | | Europe and Central Asia Region & Poverty and Equity Global Practice September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Dis ...
How Well Did Real-Time Indicators Track Household Welfare Changes in Developing Countries during the COVID-19 Crisis?
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-09-23 23:03
Policy Research Working Paper 10916 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | How Well Did Real-Time Indicators Track | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Household Welfare Changes in Developing | | | | | | | | Countries during the COVID-19 Crisis? | | | | | | | David Newhouse Rachel Swindle Shun Wang Joshua D. Merfeld Utz Pape Kibrom Tafere Mic ...