Policy Research Working Paper 10915 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Generative AI Catalyst for Growth or Harbinger of Premature De-Professionalization? Yan Liu Digital Development Global Practice September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10915 Abstract This paper presents a multi-sector growth model to elucidate the general equilibrium effects of generative artificial intelligence on economic growth, structural transforma ...

Policy Research Working Paper 10913 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Fiscal Challenges in Small States Weathering Storms, Rebuilding Resilience Samuel Hill Jeetendra Khadan Development Economics Prospects Group September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10913 Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic and the global shocks that followed have worsened fiscal and debt positions in small states, intensifying their already substantial fisc ...

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10917 Statistically Matching Income and Consumption Data An Evaluation of Energy and Income Poverty in Romania Britta Rude Monica Robayo-Abril Poverty and Equity Global Practice September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10917 Abstract To design effective policy instruments that target the energy poor in Romania, it is crucial to understand who the energy poor a ...

Public Disclosure Authorized ID4D DPI Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized ELECTRONIC SIGNATURES ENABLING TRUSTED DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION Public Disclosure Authorized DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION POLICY NOTE SERIES SEPTEMBER 2024 © 2024 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: +1-202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved. This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily ...

Policy Research Working Paper 10916 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | How Well Did Real-Time Indicators Track | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Household Welfare Changes in Developing | | | | | | | | Countries during the COVID-19 Crisis? | | | | | | | David Newhouse Rachel Swindle Shun Wang Joshua D. Merfeld Utz Pape Kibrom Tafere Mic ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the agriculture and rural connectivity sectors in Togo. Core Insights - The Public Finance Review emphasizes the need for improved public investment management to accelerate rural development and structural transformation in Togo, where 50% of the population living under the national poverty line relies on agriculture as their primary income source [12][29]. - The report highlights that low agricultural productivity and inadequate rural connectivity hinder economic growth and poverty reduction, necessitating a holistic approach that combines agricultural advancements with infrastructure development [12][29]. - It identifies that public investment can mobilize private sector investment, especially when fiscal constraints limit public funding, and suggests reforms to enhance the business environment and governance [14][28]. Summary by Sections Country Context and Challenges - Togo has faced significant challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and global trade disruptions, but managed to maintain robust growth with public investment reaching 9.7% of GDP in 2022, up from 3.2% in 2019 [19]. - Despite growth, structural transformation has been limited, with stagnant agricultural productivity and poor connectivity between rural and urban areas contributing to persistent poverty [19][20]. Public Investment Management and Structural Transformation - The report assesses the quality of public investment management in Togo, noting that while there has been progress in project selectivity, inefficiencies remain in budgeting and transparency [40]. - It emphasizes that improving public investment efficiency could significantly enhance infrastructure quality without additional budget resources, with potential gains of 14% to 37% by matching the efficiency of peer countries [13][43]. Agriculture Sector - The agriculture sector in Togo is characterized by low productivity, with only 37% of households using fertilizers and 8% using improved seeds, leading to reliance on self-subsistence farming [20][21]. - The report suggests that improving access to agricultural inputs and enhancing public sector governance are critical for boosting productivity and food security [15][16]. Energy Sector - Rural electrification is a major constraint, with only 25% of the rural population having access to electricity, which limits agricultural modernization and productivity [17][25]. - The report recommends reforms in the electricity tariff structure and governance of public utilities to improve rural electrification and support renewable energy solutions [17][25]. Transport Sector - Despite significant investments in rural road connectivity, many roads remain unpaved and poorly maintained, with 37% of the rural population living more than two kilometers from an all-weather road [18][26]. - The report calls for improved road asset management and prioritization of climate-resilient road designs to enhance rural access and agricultural productivity [18][26].

Policy Research Working Paper 10914 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|--------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | Why Did Support for Climate Policies | | | | | | Decline in Europe and Central Asia? | | | | | | | | | | | | Alexandru Cojocaru | | | | | | Michael Lokshin Iván Torre | | | Europe and Central Asia Region & Poverty and Equity Global Practice September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Dis ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) could constitute over 20% of US peak capacity by 2030, providing a flexible solution for grid management amidst growing challenges [13][24] - VPPs can reduce net generation costs by 20%, translating to approximately $140 savings per household annually, while also achieving a 7% reduction in emissions [17][54] - The integration of VPPs into grid planning can unlock their full potential, enhancing reliability, affordability, and decarbonization efforts [14][19] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - VPPs present a deployable solution for managing grid needs, addressing challenges such as projected load growth, retiring generation capacity, and extreme weather events [13][24] - The report highlights the potential of VPPs to deliver affordable, reliable, and low-carbon power, focusing on their role in reducing emissions [14][30] Key Findings - VPPs can provide a reliable, lower-cost, and cleaner resource mix compared to portfolios without VPPs, with a 17% reduction in net generation costs and a 47% reduction in carbon emissions when a carbon reduction policy is in place [17] - Nationwide, VPPs could avoid 12 to 28 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2035, representing 2% to 4% of projected US power sector emissions [17] - VPPs can reduce the need for new gas capacity by 75% or 1.5 GW, enabling the integration of 200 MW of additional renewables [17] Background - VPPs are defined as grid-integrated aggregations of distributed energy resources, such as batteries and smart devices, which can provide various grid services [22][30] - The report identifies the growing demand for electricity, interconnection challenges, and extreme weather as key factors driving the need for VPPs [24][26] Analysis of VPPs' Role - The analysis compares two portfolios: a Baseline portfolio without VPPs and a VPP-Enabled portfolio, demonstrating that the latter can achieve significant cost savings and emissions reductions [43][49] - VPPs enhance the value of variable renewable energy and can provide resilience benefits for participants, while also being rapidly deployable [47][50] Results - The VPP-Enabled portfolio meets annual reserve margin requirements using less gas and utility-scale storage capacity, demonstrating improved reliability [52] - VPPs provide cost-effective flexibility, avoiding the need for gas capacity and substituting for energy storage, leading to reduced emissions [58]

Global Economic Overview - Global economic uncertainty remains elevated due to the high-interest rate environment impacting households and companies [3] - Consumer confidence has declined as high consumer prices continue to affect consumers [5][7] - Deceleration in consumer spending continues across the board, with the exception of Brazil [6][11] Business and Industry - Manufacturing sector tips into contraction for the first time in 2024, while services continue to grow steadily [6][14] - Manufacturing growth stalls in China and the US for the first time in 2024, with the sector remaining in contraction in the eurozone [6][17] - Services sector remains the brightest spot on the global economic map, with main economies continuing growth in July [6][20] - Economic growth is accelerating, driven primarily by increases in industrial production and capital markets [6][23] Trade and External Factors - World trade volumes increased by 0.7% in June, driven by growth across all trade flows in advanced economies [6][26] - Global supply chain markets continue to normalize as the pressure index reaches historical average value in July [6][28] - In June, trade in the United States saw an increase, whereas China and Brazil experienced a decline in exports [6][31] - Container Throughput Index remained steady at around 130 points in June, but port trade activities showed a decline of 3.5% compared to May [6][35] - Total port trade experienced a decline in June 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, primarily driven by decreases in activity within Asian economies [6][41] Employment and Inflation - Unemployment rate in both the US and China continued to rise in July, while Brazil has shown a downward trend since April [6][43] - Inflation continues to ease among developed economies, with deflation still present among producers in the eurozone [6][46] - Consumer inflation in developing economies remained stable in July, with only Russia seeing an acceleration [6][49] - Most commodity prices continued to decline in August but remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels [6][53] Financial Markets - Equity markets experienced a troubled August, with most stock exchanges experiencing losses [6][73] - Volatility showed a slight upward trend in August but remains within controlled levels historically [6][76] - The cost of capital was stable in August, given stabilization in inflation and a wait-and-see approach from markets regarding interest rate decisions [6][80] - Interest rates continue largely unchanged in 2024, with increasing expectations around cuts and their magnitude [6][82] Commodities and Food Prices - Metal prices edged down slightly due to slower demand in global commodity markets [6][61] - Food prices remained broadly unchanged in July, still presenting a 19% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels [6][67] - The end prices that consumers pay for commodities dropped significantly in 2024 but remain relatively high compared to pre-pandemic levels [6][70]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the heavy-duty trucking industry in China. Core Insights - The Chinese heavy-duty truck (HDT) market experienced a significant decline in 2022, with sales dropping 45 percent year over year, but began to stabilize in 2023 with sales rebounding to approximately 900,000 trucks, including exports [2][4] - Key trends influencing the market include the emergence of new powertrains, partnerships exploring autonomous driving, increased exports, and customer pressure on pricing [2][4] Market Overview - In 2023, the domestic market achieved 616,000 truck sales, benefiting from the recovery of key sectors such as logistics and a GDP growth rate of 5 percent [4] - The market is projected to stabilize at around 800,000 trucks excluding exports, due to slowing economic growth and a shift towards rail logistics [4] - Exports accounted for about 30 percent of the total market in 2023, with 269,000 trucks exported, indicating a strategic shift by Chinese OEMs towards global markets [5] Powertrain Trends - Non-diesel powertrains are gaining traction, with CNG and LNG trucks accounting for 25 percent of the market share in 2023, while battery electric vehicles (BEVs) made up about 5 percent [10][11] - The average transaction price of domestic HDTs rose by approximately ¥42,000 (about $5,800) from January 2018 to August 2023, driven by the increasing share of CNG/LNG and BEVs [13] Market Dynamics - The top five OEMs dominate the market, holding about 88 percent of the market share, and are expected to continue gaining market share at the expense of smaller players [13][15] - The report highlights the importance of battery swapping technology, which is anticipated to account for 60 to 70 percent of BEVs in China by 2030 [15] Strategic Implications - Chinese HDT OEMs are actively pursuing export opportunities, particularly in price-sensitive markets, and are localizing production in Southeast Asia [16] - The report suggests that OEMs should focus on emerging trends such as electrification and autonomous driving to adapt to new market realities [17]