Workflow
Power Shift
RMI· 2024-09-21 00:18
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) could constitute over 20% of US peak capacity by 2030, providing a flexible solution for grid management amidst growing challenges [13][24] - VPPs can reduce net generation costs by 20%, translating to approximately $140 savings per household annually, while also achieving a 7% reduction in emissions [17][54] - The integration of VPPs into grid planning can unlock their full potential, enhancing reliability, affordability, and decarbonization efforts [14][19] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - VPPs present a deployable solution for managing grid needs, addressing challenges such as projected load growth, retiring generation capacity, and extreme weather events [13][24] - The report highlights the potential of VPPs to deliver affordable, reliable, and low-carbon power, focusing on their role in reducing emissions [14][30] Key Findings - VPPs can provide a reliable, lower-cost, and cleaner resource mix compared to portfolios without VPPs, with a 17% reduction in net generation costs and a 47% reduction in carbon emissions when a carbon reduction policy is in place [17] - Nationwide, VPPs could avoid 12 to 28 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2035, representing 2% to 4% of projected US power sector emissions [17] - VPPs can reduce the need for new gas capacity by 75% or 1.5 GW, enabling the integration of 200 MW of additional renewables [17] Background - VPPs are defined as grid-integrated aggregations of distributed energy resources, such as batteries and smart devices, which can provide various grid services [22][30] - The report identifies the growing demand for electricity, interconnection challenges, and extreme weather as key factors driving the need for VPPs [24][26] Analysis of VPPs' Role - The analysis compares two portfolios: a Baseline portfolio without VPPs and a VPP-Enabled portfolio, demonstrating that the latter can achieve significant cost savings and emissions reductions [43][49] - VPPs enhance the value of variable renewable energy and can provide resilience benefits for participants, while also being rapidly deployable [47][50] Results - The VPP-Enabled portfolio meets annual reserve margin requirements using less gas and utility-scale storage capacity, demonstrating improved reliability [52] - VPPs provide cost-effective flexibility, avoiding the need for gas capacity and substituting for energy storage, leading to reduced emissions [58]
Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, August 2024
麦肯锡· 2024-09-21 00:08
Global Economic Overview - Global economic uncertainty remains elevated due to the high-interest rate environment impacting households and companies [3] - Consumer confidence has declined as high consumer prices continue to affect consumers [5][7] - Deceleration in consumer spending continues across the board, with the exception of Brazil [6][11] Business and Industry - Manufacturing sector tips into contraction for the first time in 2024, while services continue to grow steadily [6][14] - Manufacturing growth stalls in China and the US for the first time in 2024, with the sector remaining in contraction in the eurozone [6][17] - Services sector remains the brightest spot on the global economic map, with main economies continuing growth in July [6][20] - Economic growth is accelerating, driven primarily by increases in industrial production and capital markets [6][23] Trade and External Factors - World trade volumes increased by 0.7% in June, driven by growth across all trade flows in advanced economies [6][26] - Global supply chain markets continue to normalize as the pressure index reaches historical average value in July [6][28] - In June, trade in the United States saw an increase, whereas China and Brazil experienced a decline in exports [6][31] - Container Throughput Index remained steady at around 130 points in June, but port trade activities showed a decline of 3.5% compared to May [6][35] - Total port trade experienced a decline in June 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, primarily driven by decreases in activity within Asian economies [6][41] Employment and Inflation - Unemployment rate in both the US and China continued to rise in July, while Brazil has shown a downward trend since April [6][43] - Inflation continues to ease among developed economies, with deflation still present among producers in the eurozone [6][46] - Consumer inflation in developing economies remained stable in July, with only Russia seeing an acceleration [6][49] - Most commodity prices continued to decline in August but remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels [6][53] Financial Markets - Equity markets experienced a troubled August, with most stock exchanges experiencing losses [6][73] - Volatility showed a slight upward trend in August but remains within controlled levels historically [6][76] - The cost of capital was stable in August, given stabilization in inflation and a wait-and-see approach from markets regarding interest rate decisions [6][80] - Interest rates continue largely unchanged in 2024, with increasing expectations around cuts and their magnitude [6][82] Commodities and Food Prices - Metal prices edged down slightly due to slower demand in global commodity markets [6][61] - Food prices remained broadly unchanged in July, still presenting a 19% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels [6][67] - The end prices that consumers pay for commodities dropped significantly in 2024 but remain relatively high compared to pre-pandemic levels [6][70]
A new era: Trends shaping China’s heavy-duty trucking industry
麦肯锡· 2024-09-21 00:08
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the heavy-duty trucking industry in China. Core Insights - The Chinese heavy-duty truck (HDT) market experienced a significant decline in 2022, with sales dropping 45 percent year over year, but began to stabilize in 2023 with sales rebounding to approximately 900,000 trucks, including exports [2][4] - Key trends influencing the market include the emergence of new powertrains, partnerships exploring autonomous driving, increased exports, and customer pressure on pricing [2][4] Market Overview - In 2023, the domestic market achieved 616,000 truck sales, benefiting from the recovery of key sectors such as logistics and a GDP growth rate of 5 percent [4] - The market is projected to stabilize at around 800,000 trucks excluding exports, due to slowing economic growth and a shift towards rail logistics [4] - Exports accounted for about 30 percent of the total market in 2023, with 269,000 trucks exported, indicating a strategic shift by Chinese OEMs towards global markets [5] Powertrain Trends - Non-diesel powertrains are gaining traction, with CNG and LNG trucks accounting for 25 percent of the market share in 2023, while battery electric vehicles (BEVs) made up about 5 percent [10][11] - The average transaction price of domestic HDTs rose by approximately ¥42,000 (about $5,800) from January 2018 to August 2023, driven by the increasing share of CNG/LNG and BEVs [13] Market Dynamics - The top five OEMs dominate the market, holding about 88 percent of the market share, and are expected to continue gaining market share at the expense of smaller players [13][15] - The report highlights the importance of battery swapping technology, which is anticipated to account for 60 to 70 percent of BEVs in China by 2030 [15] Strategic Implications - Chinese HDT OEMs are actively pursuing export opportunities, particularly in price-sensitive markets, and are localizing production in Southeast Asia [16] - The report suggests that OEMs should focus on emerging trends such as electrification and autonomous driving to adapt to new market realities [17]
Using Satellite Imagery and a Farmer Registry to Assess Agricultural Support in Conflict Settings
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-09-20 23:03
Policy Research Working Paper 10912 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Using Satellite Imagery and a Farmer Registry to Assess Agricultural Support in Conflict Settings The Case of the Producer Support Grant Program in Ukraine Klaus Deininger Daniel Ayalew Ali Development Economics Development Research Group September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10912 Abstract While cash transfers have emerged as an attractive option to ...
Unlocking Local Finance For Sustainable Infrastructure
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-09-20 23:03
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OEMs' Digital Operations
罗兰贝格· 2024-09-20 00:53
天猫汽车 Roland Berger 汽车数字化经营白皮书 洞察汽车产业生态 探索高质量增长方案 2024年9月 目录 01/摘要 01 02/汽车全行业产业及消费趋势洞察 03 03/聚焦汽车全行业的"增长"解决方案 21 04/案例实践 33 05/总结 39 000 100 the states 82 s 84.02 inter N STERE THE STORE Purportions . d b 1 t 2019 11:1 : 1 the state of the first of the country of 摘要 坐全球最大汽车市场的宝座。随着中国乘用车保 品和服务的识别、人群特征的洞察、跨界入局的 有量即将步入整体稳健培长的发展阶段,日渐百 焕新转型、市场拓展的渠道构建等诸多问题接避 热化竞争超势下未来如何支撑高速增长成为中国 而至。 市场车企驱待制定突窦国策略的关键命题。同时, 中国从汽车大国迈向汽车强国的重担并非仅落于 在该背素下,罗兰贝格携手天猫,一方面是罗兰贝 服务等客类玩家需携手共建完善的汽车产业生 件和汽车后市场全行业发展前沿趋势的深刻洞见 历经二十多年的奋进突破与沉淀蓄力,中国已 ...
Between Two Worlds: Sustainable Business in the Turbulent Transition
BSR· 2024-09-20 00:18
Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, but it emphasizes the urgency and importance of transitioning to sustainable business practices, particularly in the context of climate change and nature crises [8][90] Core Viewpoints - The transition to a sustainable economy is underway but will require perseverance and ongoing ambition, as the process is likely to be disorderly and disruptive [9][91] - Businesses must rapidly address climate and nature crises while preparing for the impacts already underway, as emissions continue to rise and nature degradation worsens [8][90] - The development and deployment of technology must be approached wisely, with caution against over-reliance on unproven technological solutions at the expense of policy reform and behavior change [10][94] - There is a growing tension between economic growth and environmental goals, necessitating a fundamental rethink of economic systems and business models [11][98] - Companies have a critical role in promoting truth, democracy, and cooperation, especially in the face of political polarization and misinformation [12][102] - The agenda for boards and the C-suite has become more complex, requiring strategic foresight and agility to navigate a rapidly changing landscape [13][105] Key Developments in Sustainable Business - The energy transition has moved from aspiration to reality, with clean energy technologies becoming cheaper and more widely adopted, though fossil fuel demand remains high [41][42] - Climate change and nature crises have intensified, with record-breaking temperatures, extreme weather events, and biodiversity loss posing significant risks to business and society [46][47] - Social cohesion and democracy have come under strain, with rising inequality, political polarization, and misinformation complicating efforts for sustainable business [49][50] - Geopolitics and trade have entered a new era, with decoupling between China and the West, supply chain disruptions, and increased protectionism [53][55] - Technology has grown more powerful, with mixed results, as some innovations fail to scale while others, like AI, hold promise but also pose risks [61][63] Evolution of Sustainable Business Practices - Climate and nature have become material risks for business and finance, driving the adoption of net zero commitments and nature-related disclosure frameworks [69][71] - Business and human rights have matured, with justice and equity emerging as new concerns, particularly in the context of climate justice and the just transition [74][75] - Sustainability disclosures have become increasingly mandatory and harmonized, with governance accountability rising to the board level [75][76] - Responsible development of technology has emerged as a concern, with businesses expected to ensure that new technologies respect human rights and ethical principles [80][81] - The ESG backlash has complicated efforts, with political and social resistance slowing progress on sustainable business commitments [84][85] Strategic Insights for Business - Businesses must accelerate progress on climate and nature while preparing for the disruption already underway, as the impacts of these crises are becoming increasingly existential [90][91] - The transition to a sustainable economy will require ambitious vision and commitment, complemented by strategic foresight and agility to navigate a turbulent and disruptive period [91][92] - Companies should balance technological innovation with policy reform and behavior change, avoiding over-reliance on unproven solutions like carbon dioxide removal [94][95] - A fundamental rethink of economic systems and business models is urgently needed to address the tension between growth and environmental goals [98][100] - Businesses have a unique role in promoting truth, democracy, and cooperation, particularly in the face of political polarization and misinformation [102][104] - Strategic foresight is essential for navigating the rapid and complex changes ahead, with scenario planning and horizon scanning helping businesses prepare for future uncertainties [107][109]
Building Europe’s electric-truck charging infrastructure
麦肯锡· 2024-09-20 00:08
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the electric truck charging infrastructure industry. Core Insights - The expected global mass rollout of electric trucks necessitates a dense charging network, with McKinsey estimating that over 300,000 charge points will be required in Europe by 2030, up from approximately 10,000 today [2] - A total capital investment of around €40 billion will be needed to build this infrastructure by 2040, with €7 billion required by 2030, of which less than a quarter has been publicly committed [2][29] - The charging infrastructure will be energy-intensive, consuming 20 terawatt-hours of electricity annually by 2030, which is about 0.5% of Europe's total electricity demand [2] Summary by Sections Charging Infrastructure Development - The first phase of charging infrastructure will be installed in private fleet depots or semi-public hubs, with over 90% of installations expected to be near major industrial sites or logistics hubs by 2030 [12][13] - Public charging infrastructure will develop more slowly, with only 4,000 public charging points for slower overnight charging and 12,000 fast-charging points expected by 2030, requiring a total investment of €1.5 billion [15] - By 2040, a total of 100,000 public charging points are anticipated to be installed along European highways, providing 45% of the total electricity used by electric trucks [15] Use Cases and Fleet Operations - The first wave of commercial electric trucks will primarily be used for single-day travel, covering more than 50% of electric trucks in Europe by 2030 [7] - Fleet operators will need to navigate trade-offs in vehicle specifications, balancing battery size, charging infrastructure, and operational flexibility [9] - The development of depot-based infrastructure offers a solid business case for fleet operators, with an expected EBIT profit pool of €200 million between now and 2030 [14] Market Opportunities and Challenges - The electric truck charging market presents significant opportunities due to the lack of established players, allowing new entrants to shape the ecosystem [3] - Public fast chargers are expected to be the most profitable type of infrastructure, with a profit pool valued at €500 million between now and 2030 [15] - The report highlights the need for integrated solutions that include financing, electricity access, and hardware implementation to support the electrification of fleet hubs [31] Strategic Recommendations - Fleet operators should develop electrification and charging infrastructure roadmaps well in advance, considering grid upgrades and potential delays in approvals for charging stations [19][24] - Collaboration among various stakeholders, including utility companies, charging hardware providers, and fleet operators, is essential for successful infrastructure deployment [21][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and customer needs to create differentiated offerings in the charging infrastructure space [31][32]
Reimagining healthcare industry service operations in the age of AI
麦肯锡· 2024-09-20 00:08
Mc Company Healthcare Practice Reimagining healthcare industry service operations in the age of AI Healthcare payers, care delivery organizations, and governments have many opportunities to improve consumer experiences and bolster service efficiency using AI solutions. by Sameer Chowdhary with Avani Kaushik, Sagar Soni, and Vinay Gupta September 2024 As the healthcare industry continues to evolve, operations leaders face a complex set of challenges, including high administrative costs and employee attrition ...
Register-based Measurements of Poverty and Social Exclusion
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-09-19 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of developing a robust methodology for assessing poverty and social exclusion in Croatia, leveraging the forthcoming Central Register of the Population to fill data gaps and improve monitoring [19][23][26] Summary by Sections Introduction - The European Union has committed to addressing poverty and social exclusion, aiming to lift at least 15 million people out of risk by 2030 through various funding mechanisms [19][21] - Croatia has made progress in reducing poverty, with the share of the population living on less than US$ 6.85 a day decreasing from 8.1% in 2011 to 1.8% in 2021, yet certain demographic groups remain vulnerable [19][21] Overview of Key Concepts and Data Sources in the EU - The report outlines the official definitions of poverty and social exclusion indicators required by Eurostat, highlighting the shift from survey-based to administrative data [29][30] - It discusses the concept of at-risk-of-poverty (AROP) as a key indicator, defined as the share of the population with an equivalized disposable income below 60% of the national median [31][34] Croatia's Central Register of the Population - The report assesses the development of Croatia's Central Register of the Population, detailing its objectives, timeline, and legal framework [3][3][3] - It highlights the potential of the Population Register to improve data quality and fill gaps in poverty and social exclusion measurement [3][3][3] Register-Based Poverty Measurements in Croatia - The report identifies existing AROP measures and data sources in Croatia, discussing challenges such as incomplete tax income data and under-reporting of income [4][4][4] - Recommendations for improving poverty measurement methodologies are provided, including approaches to address under-reporting and spatial price differences [4][4][4] Register-Based Measurements of Social Exclusion in Croatia - The report examines the existing approach to measuring social exclusion in Croatia and offers recommendations for enhancing measurement methodologies [5][5][5] - It emphasizes the need for simplified AROPE rates and the development of social exclusion indicators by domain [5][5][5] Institutional Set-Up for Tracking Poverty and Social Exclusion - The report suggests potential institutional arrangements for data collection, analysis, and reporting to effectively monitor poverty and social exclusion indicators [6][6][6] - It outlines the roles of various stakeholders in the proposed institutional models [6][6][6] Monitoring System for Poverty and Social Exclusion - A proposed monitoring system for tracking poverty and social exclusion indicators at subnational levels is detailed, including the collection and processing of indicators [7][7][7] - The report concludes with next steps for implementing the recommendations and enhancing the monitoring framework [8][8][8]