Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global economy is rapidly evolving, significantly influenced by climate change and the transition to cleaner energy sources, which will impact global trade patterns and demand for critical minerals [4][10][11] - By 2040, demand for critical minerals may increase fourfold, with emerging economies positioned to benefit from this shift [4][15] - The role of trade agreements and policies will be crucial in securing supply chains for these minerals, as rising protectionism and supply chain disruptions are observed [4][10][30] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The report outlines the significant changes in global trade flows due to the energy transition, emphasizing the increasing demand for critical minerals essential for clean energy technologies [9][10] Commodities of the Future - Key minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements are projected to see substantial demand growth, particularly driven by electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy technologies [11][24][25] Trade in Transition - The shift towards cleaner energy will lead to a surge in demand for specific minerals, necessitating changes in trade flows and policies [10][15] Revolutions and Evolutions - Climate change is a defining issue, with many economies committing to net zero targets, which will significantly increase the demand for critical minerals [11][30] What Commodities Will Play a Role? - The report identifies various minerals that will be crucial for the energy transition, including lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, highlighting their increasing importance in clean energy technologies [45][51] Who Sells What? - The report discusses the geographical concentration of critical mineral production, with countries like China playing a dominant role, while emerging economies may gain prominence [4][15][30] Protectionism is on the Rise - The report notes a trend towards protectionism, with countries implementing export controls on critical minerals to enhance domestic supply chains [4][10][30] Diversification to Secure Supply Chains - The need for diversification in supply chains is emphasized, as reliance on a few dominant producers poses risks to the stability of mineral supplies [4][10][30] Role for Trade Agreements - Trade agreements will be essential in facilitating the supply of critical minerals, as countries seek to secure their energy transition needs [4][10][30] Who Could Be the Winners? - Emerging economies with abundant mineral resources are likely to benefit from the growing demand for critical minerals, positioning them as key players in the global trade landscape [4][15][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the truck industry, with specific recommendations to prefer companies positioned for a truck downcycle, such as Knorr-Bremse and Traton, while advising a sell on Volvo due to its exposure to the deteriorating truck cycle [1]. Core Insights - The North American truck market shows a significant decline, with a net score of -8 in July, indicating a deeper deterioration in market conditions compared to previous months [1][14]. - In Europe, the net score improved to +2 in July, marking the first positive score in a year, although sustained momentum is necessary for optimism [1][73]. - The report highlights that while North America faces challenges with high inventory levels and declining orders, Europe is experiencing a slight recovery in carrier metrics, albeit from a low base [1][14][73]. North America Overview - The preliminary truck net orders in North America decreased by 3.7% month-over-month in July to 17.5k, down 13% year-over-year [1][42]. - Inventory levels are at near all-time highs, driven by macroeconomic factors and the upcoming US election, which is affecting orders [1][49]. - The backlog to build ratio has narrowed to 4.5 months, the lowest level since 2017, indicating potential production slowdowns [1][42]. Europe Overview - The European truck market's net score of +2 reflects an improvement from June, with carrier confidence showing positive signs for the first time since July 2022 [1][73]. - Despite a year-over-year decline of 8% in truck orders, registrations in the EU and UK increased by approximately 9% [1][73]. - The report suggests that production levels in Europe are expected to slow in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half due to normalized supply chains [1][73]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the truck crowding scores have deteriorated across the industry, with specific brands like Knorr-Bremse remaining positive compared to peers [1][3]. - The overall sentiment in the North American market is cautious, with macro indicators and truck rates contributing to the negative outlook [1][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring leading indicators, which have historically correlated with truck order developments [1][13][72].

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab US Daily Brief Today's Research – August 13, 2024 Equities Americas US Biotechnology Small/Mid Cap - BHVN degrader combined Ph1 update. IMVT pipeline progressing. APLT regulatory de-risking ahead. (Ashwani Verma) BHVN: degrader fulsome SAD + MAD update in 2H24. IMVT: Bato Graves detailed data next, MG Ph3 in 1Q. APLT: Significant stock upside on regulatory de-risking. US Biotechnology Small/Mid Cap - LEGN Carvykti inflection around the corner. ACLX attracti ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab KeyCorp BNS stake supports KEY shares, but greater visibility needed to determine upside Capital injection solves for near term capital, earnings headwinds KEY shares handily outperformed today (+9.1% vs. -0.5% for the BKX) after announcing a $2.8bn strategic investment in the bank by Scotiabank (14.9% pro forma ownership) at a premium to recent its valuation, though retreated from early trading levels that neared the $17.17 price implied by the deal. We th ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry or specific companies [18]. Core Insights - The most crowded longs as of August 9, 2024, include EXC, ES, XEL, ETR, and AES, while the most crowded shorts are SO, EVRG, LNT, NEE, and WEC [1]. - The report highlights a positive change in crowding scores for companies such as CNP, NI, ETR, ED, and FE, indicating increasing long interest, while EIX, SRE, LNT, D, and EVRG show the largest negative moves [3]. - Six companies are identified as benefiting from the power demand trade theme related to data centers: AES, CEG, NEE, NRG, PEG, and VST [6]. Summary by Sections Crowding Data - The report provides a detailed analysis of crowding scores, which indicate the percentage of eligible funds holding or shorting a stock. Scores typically range from -30 to +30, with higher positive scores indicating more long-crowded stocks [10]. - Historical crowding scores for various companies are presented, showing fluctuations over the past months, with notable scores for July 2024 [11]. Global Crowding Momentum - A three-factor "Crowding Momentum" score is introduced, suggesting that stocks that are long-crowded, becoming more long-crowded, and had weak recent performance are expected to perform well in the coming month. Stocks like NRG and CEG received positive scores, while WEC and OGE were rated negative [12][13]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation methodology for the North America Utilities sector is primarily based on price-to-earnings ratios, with adjustments made for growth, regulatory environments, and clean energy transition opportunities [15].

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read OMV Gas supply risks back on the horizon The risk of an interruption of gas supply from Russia into Austria has been increasing of late and negatively impacting sentiment on OMV. However, unlike in 2022, we see the company as better prepared having secured sources of gas supply from elsewhere. Meanwhile, in the event of a delivery stop, we calculate the financial impact for the midstream division to be limited and more than offset by an increase ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of Neutral to Tupy SA with a price target of R$25.50 [3][16]. Core Insights - Tupy SA's revenue has been negatively impacted by lower volumes, particularly in the off-road segment abroad, but the company has demonstrated effective cost control, leading to an adjusted EBITDA increase of 14% compared to expectations and a margin expansion of 3 percentage points year-over-year [2][3]. - The significant decline in net income, which fell by 67% against expectations, is attributed to foreign exchange hedge mark-to-market expenses [2][3]. Financial Highlights - Revenue for Tupy SA is projected to be R$11.291 billion for 2024, a slight decrease from R$11.368 billion in 2023, with expected growth to R$12.518 billion in 2025 and R$13.835 billion in 2026 [5]. - The company's EBIT margin is expected to be 7.8% in 2024, improving to 8.7% in 2025 and 9.3% in 2026 [5]. - The net debt to EBITDA ratio is projected to be 1.2x for 2024, indicating a manageable level of debt relative to earnings [5]. Market Metrics - Tupy SA's market capitalization is approximately R$3.72 billion (US$0.68 billion), with an average daily trading volume of 573,000 shares [4]. - The stock price as of August 13, 2024, is R$25.79, slightly above the price target of R$25.50 [3][16]. Forecast Returns - The forecast price appreciation for Tupy SA is -1.1%, with a forecast dividend yield of 3.6%, leading to an overall forecast stock return of 2.5% [6].

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Alinma Bank SJSC ALINMA Post 2Q24: Higher growth guidance 2Q24 2% profit beat on better revenue, with updated guidance Alinma's 2Q24 net profit was 2% above Visible Alpha consensus, driven by a 2% beat on NII and a 3% beat on noninterest income, with asset quality broadly in line with expectations. On the call it improved guidance for loan growth (from mid to high teens), and cost of risk (from 65-75bps to 60-70bps), but lowered it for cost/income (from c30 ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Global Tobacco MSA settlement in Massachusetts Equities Global Tobacco Faham Baig Analyst faham.baig@ubs.com +44-20-7568 3966 $600m Massachusetts settlement could be paid through funds in escrow On Monday 12 August 2024, the Massachusetts Attorney General's Office (see here) said it had "reached a $600 million settlement with major tobacco manufacturers, marking the largest AGO resolution in recent history. In addition to the $600 million that wi ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Crest Nicholson Bellway walks; where does this leave shares? Bellway confirms it does not intend to make a firm offer for Crest Nicholson Following an extension of the offer period (on 8 August) to 20 August at the request of Crest Nicholson's Board, in order to fully conclude due diligence and the negotiation of definitive transaction documentation, Bellway today announced it does not intend to make a firm offer for Crest Nicholson (click here). ...