ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab US Daily Brief Today's Research – August 13, 2024 Equities Americas US Biotechnology Small/Mid Cap - BHVN degrader combined Ph1 update. IMVT pipeline progressing. APLT regulatory de-risking ahead. (Ashwani Verma) BHVN: degrader fulsome SAD + MAD update in 2H24. IMVT: Bato Graves detailed data next, MG Ph3 in 1Q. APLT: Significant stock upside on regulatory de-risking. US Biotechnology Small/Mid Cap - LEGN Carvykti inflection around the corner. ACLX attracti ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab KeyCorp BNS stake supports KEY shares, but greater visibility needed to determine upside Capital injection solves for near term capital, earnings headwinds KEY shares handily outperformed today (+9.1% vs. -0.5% for the BKX) after announcing a $2.8bn strategic investment in the bank by Scotiabank (14.9% pro forma ownership) at a premium to recent its valuation, though retreated from early trading levels that neared the $17.17 price implied by the deal. We th ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry or specific companies [18]. Core Insights - The most crowded longs as of August 9, 2024, include EXC, ES, XEL, ETR, and AES, while the most crowded shorts are SO, EVRG, LNT, NEE, and WEC [1]. - The report highlights a positive change in crowding scores for companies such as CNP, NI, ETR, ED, and FE, indicating increasing long interest, while EIX, SRE, LNT, D, and EVRG show the largest negative moves [3]. - Six companies are identified as benefiting from the power demand trade theme related to data centers: AES, CEG, NEE, NRG, PEG, and VST [6]. Summary by Sections Crowding Data - The report provides a detailed analysis of crowding scores, which indicate the percentage of eligible funds holding or shorting a stock. Scores typically range from -30 to +30, with higher positive scores indicating more long-crowded stocks [10]. - Historical crowding scores for various companies are presented, showing fluctuations over the past months, with notable scores for July 2024 [11]. Global Crowding Momentum - A three-factor "Crowding Momentum" score is introduced, suggesting that stocks that are long-crowded, becoming more long-crowded, and had weak recent performance are expected to perform well in the coming month. Stocks like NRG and CEG received positive scores, while WEC and OGE were rated negative [12][13]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation methodology for the North America Utilities sector is primarily based on price-to-earnings ratios, with adjustments made for growth, regulatory environments, and clean energy transition opportunities [15].

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read OMV Gas supply risks back on the horizon The risk of an interruption of gas supply from Russia into Austria has been increasing of late and negatively impacting sentiment on OMV. However, unlike in 2022, we see the company as better prepared having secured sources of gas supply from elsewhere. Meanwhile, in the event of a delivery stop, we calculate the financial impact for the midstream division to be limited and more than offset by an increase ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of Neutral to Tupy SA with a price target of R$25.50 [3][16]. Core Insights - Tupy SA's revenue has been negatively impacted by lower volumes, particularly in the off-road segment abroad, but the company has demonstrated effective cost control, leading to an adjusted EBITDA increase of 14% compared to expectations and a margin expansion of 3 percentage points year-over-year [2][3]. - The significant decline in net income, which fell by 67% against expectations, is attributed to foreign exchange hedge mark-to-market expenses [2][3]. Financial Highlights - Revenue for Tupy SA is projected to be R$11.291 billion for 2024, a slight decrease from R$11.368 billion in 2023, with expected growth to R$12.518 billion in 2025 and R$13.835 billion in 2026 [5]. - The company's EBIT margin is expected to be 7.8% in 2024, improving to 8.7% in 2025 and 9.3% in 2026 [5]. - The net debt to EBITDA ratio is projected to be 1.2x for 2024, indicating a manageable level of debt relative to earnings [5]. Market Metrics - Tupy SA's market capitalization is approximately R$3.72 billion (US$0.68 billion), with an average daily trading volume of 573,000 shares [4]. - The stock price as of August 13, 2024, is R$25.79, slightly above the price target of R$25.50 [3][16]. Forecast Returns - The forecast price appreciation for Tupy SA is -1.1%, with a forecast dividend yield of 3.6%, leading to an overall forecast stock return of 2.5% [6].

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Alinma Bank SJSC ALINMA Post 2Q24: Higher growth guidance 2Q24 2% profit beat on better revenue, with updated guidance Alinma's 2Q24 net profit was 2% above Visible Alpha consensus, driven by a 2% beat on NII and a 3% beat on noninterest income, with asset quality broadly in line with expectations. On the call it improved guidance for loan growth (from mid to high teens), and cost of risk (from 65-75bps to 60-70bps), but lowered it for cost/income (from c30 ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Global Tobacco MSA settlement in Massachusetts Equities Global Tobacco Faham Baig Analyst faham.baig@ubs.com +44-20-7568 3966 $600m Massachusetts settlement could be paid through funds in escrow On Monday 12 August 2024, the Massachusetts Attorney General's Office (see here) said it had "reached a $600 million settlement with major tobacco manufacturers, marking the largest AGO resolution in recent history. In addition to the $600 million that wi ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Crest Nicholson Bellway walks; where does this leave shares? Bellway confirms it does not intend to make a firm offer for Crest Nicholson Following an extension of the offer period (on 8 August) to 20 August at the request of Crest Nicholson's Board, in order to fully conclude due diligence and the negotiation of definitive transaction documentation, Bellway today announced it does not intend to make a firm offer for Crest Nicholson (click here). ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Bezeq to Neutral with a new price target of NIS4.4, down from Buy and NIS6.1 [2][5][13] Core Viewpoints - Bezeq has a strong balance sheet with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of approximately 1.6x, compared to the sector average of 2.7x, and offers defensive returns with a projected 70% net profit payout in 2024, translating to a dividend yield of around 7% [2][4][10] - The mid-term outlook remains attractive with catalysts such as a decline in FTTH capex and cost reductions in satellite operations, although the risk premium has increased recently, leading to caution regarding the 2024 outlook [2][3][10] - Regulatory pressures are expected to continue impacting profitability, particularly concerning FTTH campaigns and fixed broadband rates, which may hinder revenue growth [3][10][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Bezeq's revenue for 2024 is projected at NIS8.823 billion, reflecting a slight decline from previous estimates, with EBITDA expected to be around NIS3.719 billion [7][15] - The company anticipates a flat year-over-year adjusted EBITDA for 2024, with a forecasted slight miss at NIS3.7 billion [3][15] Dividend Policy - Bezeq plans to increase its net profit payout ratio by 10 percentage points annually from 70% in 2024 until it reaches 100% in 2027 [4][8][18] Valuation and Estimates - The report incorporates a higher WACC of 9.2% due to an increased risk premium, which has contributed to the reduction in price target [6][13] - The valuation reflects a DCF-derived price target of NIS4.4, with a dividend yield of approximately 7% for 2024, supported by a free cash flow yield of around 9% [6][10] Market Position and Outlook - Bezeq is positioned as Israel's largest telecommunications provider, with significant market share in mobile and pay-TV, but faces ongoing regulatory challenges that may limit growth [10][12] - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% in free cash flow from 2024 to 2027, despite a projected dip in 2024 [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for MatsukiyoCocokara & Co. with a revised 12-month price target of ¥2,730, down from ¥2,960 [2][5][6]. Core Insights - The merger of Matsumoto Kiyoshi Holdings and Cocokara Fine in October 2021 has led to improved gross margins and is expected to enhance profitability through better personnel allocation, store openings, and logistics optimization [3][4]. - The company is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in foreign visitors to Japan, which will contribute to growth in same-store sales driven by differentiated products and industry consolidation initiatives [3][4]. Earnings Forecasts - For FY3/25, sales are expected to reach ¥1,054.6 billion with an operating profit (OP) of ¥77.4 billion, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase. The OP margin is projected at 7.3% [4][7]. - In FY3/26, sales are forecasted to grow to ¥1,087.3 billion with an OP of ¥85.0 billion, marking a 10% increase from the previous year [4][7]. - Same-store sales growth is estimated at 1.0% year-over-year for FY3/25 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The revised price target of ¥2,730 corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 21.5 times the FY3/25 earnings per share (EPS) estimate of ¥126.9 [5][6]. - The report indicates a market capitalization of ¥946 billion (approximately US$6.40 billion) and an average daily trading volume of 1,579,000 shares [6][8]. Financial Highlights - The company reported revenues of ¥951.2 billion and an operating profit of ¥62.3 billion for FY3/23, with a significant increase in sales projected for FY3/24 at ¥1,022.5 billion [7][9]. - The net profit for FY3/25 is expected to be around ¥52.1 billion, with a slight decrease from the previous estimate of ¥53.7 billion [4][9]. Profitability and Valuation Ratios - The operating profit margin is projected to be 7.3% for FY3/25, with an increase to 7.8% in FY3/26 [4][7]. - The report highlights a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 18.8% for FY3/25, indicating strong profitability [7][9]. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The cash flow from operating activities is expected to be ¥73.6 billion for FY3/25, with a free cash flow (FCF) of ¥43.8 billion [11]. - Total assets are projected to be ¥717.2 billion for FY3/25, with total liabilities at ¥196.8 billion, indicating a healthy balance sheet [10].