Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry or specific bonds. Core Insights - The report highlights the spreads of various sovereign EUR bonds compared to the USD curve, indicating potential investment opportunities based on their relative pricing and z-scores [17][19][20]. Summary by Sections Cheapest Bonds to the Curve - The report identifies the highest spreads to the cross-currency adjusted USD curve, with IVYCST 4.875% 32€ showing a spread of 171 basis points, while EGYPT 6.375% 31€ has a spread of 164 basis points [20][21]. - The report lists several bonds with significant spreads, including EGYPT 5.625% 30€ at 161 basis points and IVYCST 5.875% 31€ at 154 basis points [20][21]. Richest Bonds to the Curve - The report details the lowest spreads to the cross-currency adjusted USD curve, with PEMEX 5.5% 25€ showing a spread of -198 basis points, indicating it is the richest bond [22]. - Other notable bonds include ROMANIA 2.875% 24€ at -161 basis points and ISRAEL 2.5% 49€ at -119 basis points [22]. Issuer Pages - The report provides detailed issuer pages, including specific bonds and their respective spreads, z-scores, and historical data, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of each issuer's bond performance [17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][30][35][42][49][51][60]. Emerging Markets Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the cross-currency adjusted spreads as a key indicator for investment decisions in emerging markets [17][18]. Historical Trends - The report includes historical data on bond spreads, showing trends over time and highlighting significant changes in spreads and z-scores for various bonds [17][20][22][30][35]. Conclusion - The report provides a detailed analysis of sovereign EUR bonds, focusing on their spreads relative to the USD curve, which can guide investment decisions in the current market environment [17][19][20][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Agency MBS, with a raised total 2024 mREIT demand forecast to $20 billion from an initial $0 billion, indicating a favorable investment environment [31][38]. Core Insights - Agency MBS tightened this week due to a dovish FOMC press conference and weak economic data, resulting in rates falling by approximately 20 basis points across most of the stack [2][4]. - The market is currently pricing in slightly more than three rate cuts this year, which is expected to relieve some pressure on bank deposits and make MBS more attractive to FX-hedged buyers [2][4]. - mREITs added about $7 billion in Agency MBS in Q2, driven by capital raises and slightly higher leverage, indicating strong demand in the sector [31][38]. - The report highlights a trend of increasing "servicing-released" loans, where the servicing is sold at issuance, and emphasizes the importance of selecting loans serviced by known slower servicers for better protection [2][11][21]. Summary by Sections Agency MBS Overview - Mortgages tightened this week, with rates falling by around 20 basis points due to dovish signals from the FOMC and weak economic data [2][4]. - The BoJ's recent actions have not yet made MBS attractive to long-term investors, but a steepening of the US curve could provide support [2][7]. Market Dynamics - The shift in the loan seller landscape has increased the share of retail loans sold as servicing-released, which complicates the analysis of TPO share [11][21]. - Money manager inflows have been robust, with a notable shift back to index funds from active managers [7][8]. mREIT Activity - The top six mREITs added close to $7 billion in Agency MBS in Q2, with AGNC leading the way by adding $3 billion [31][32]. - mREITs are currently holding a significant portion of their Agency MBS in higher coupon categories, which allows them to meet dividend targets but also exposes them to convexity risk [31][35]. Rate Projections - The report discusses expectations for primary rates, projecting a modest decline of 20 to 60 basis points, depending on various market conditions [40][42]. - The analysis indicates that significant changes in the market would be required for primary rates to drop into more favorable levels for refinancing [40][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Underweight recommendation on Telefonica [8]. Core Insights - Altice International's sale of Teads to Outbrain is valued at approximately $1 billion, with Altice receiving $725 million at close and $105 million in convertible preferred equity, indicating a strategic shift [3][4]. - Bouygues reported H1 results with total revenues up 1% year-on-year, but telecom revenues fell short of estimates, leading to a reaffirmation of FY24 guidance [3][4]. - Cellnex's Q2 results showed a 6% revenue increase from its tower business, with EBITDAaL growing by 7.8% year-on-year, reflecting operational efficiency [4][5]. - Digi announced the acquisition of Nowo Communications for €150 million, expanding its mobile and fixed client base [4]. - Inwit reported Q2 revenues of €257 million, up 8.2% year-on-year, driven by CPI-linked price increases and new service developments [4]. - Liberty Global's financial policy focuses on shareholder value, with plans for share buybacks and a commitment to maintaining a leveraged credit group [5]. - Telecom Italia's Q2 results were slightly ahead of expectations, with a focus on its ServCo business and a target to reduce net leverage to below 2.0x by year-end 2024 [8]. - Vodafone launched a tender offer and €500 million senior issue to reduce debt, following the completion of its Vodafone Spain divestment [8]. - Wolters Kluwer reported a 6% organic revenue increase in Q2, with a reaffirmation of FY24 guidance [9]. Summary by Company - **Altice International**: Sale of Teads valued at ~$1 billion, strategic portfolio review nearing completion [3]. - **Bouygues**: H1 revenues rose 1% y/y, telecom revenues fell short, FY24 guidance reaffirmed [3][4]. - **Cellnex**: Q2 revenue growth of 6%, EBITDAaL up 7.8% y/y, operational efficiency noted [4][5]. - **Digi**: Acquisition of Nowo Communications for €150 million announced [4]. - **Inwit**: Q2 revenues of €257 million, up 8.2% y/y, driven by new service developments [4]. - **Liberty Global**: Focus on shareholder value, plans for share buybacks, maintaining leverage [5]. - **Telecom Italia**: Slightly ahead of expectations in Q2, targeting net leverage <2.0x by YE24 [8]. - **Vodafone**: Launched tender offer and €500 million senior issue for debt reduction [8]. - **Wolters Kluwer**: 6% organic revenue growth in Q2, FY24 guidance reaffirmed [9].

North America Equity Research 02 August 2024 J P M O R G A N AER / AL Earnings Takeaways (+DUBAEE/AVOL/GALCLD) Downgrading AER Credit to N From OW (Equity Remains OW) More of the same for lessors reporting yesterday and today – OEM delays (both airframes and engines) amid strong global demand (at least for replacement aircraft) are creating covetable positions for the leasing community who are reextending leases (in the case of AER, it remains >80%) at attractive rates. But it appears equity investor patien ...

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Shenzhen MTC with a target price of RMB 6 90 [2] Core Views - Shenzhen MTC reported robust 1H24 revenue and net profit growth with revenue reaching RMB 9 520mn (+23 07% yoy) and net profit at RMB 911mn (+24 04% yoy) [2] - The company's dual growth driver strategy focusing on multimedia and LED businesses is effective with LED industry chain revenue reaching RMB 2 584mn (+29 4% yoy) [2][4] - TV output recovery and increased market share in COB direct-view display business contributed to the strong performance [3][4] Financial Performance - 1H24 revenue from multimedia audio-visual products and operation services was RMB 6 936mn (+21% yoy) with over 5 4mn units of smart display terminals shipped [3] - LED business revenue was driven by product-mix upgrades and increased penetration of Mini LED COB direct-view display products (1H24 revenue: RMB 432mn) [4] - Gross profit margin (GPM) for 2Q24 improved by 0 1pp yoy due to stable TV panel prices and higher contributions from high-margin LED products [5] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 20 762mn in 2024E (+20 94% yoy) and RMB 25 308mn in 2026E (+9 28% yoy) [6] - Net profit is projected to increase to RMB 2 094mn in 2024E (+31 86% yoy) and RMB 2 678mn in 2026E (+10 64% yoy) [6] - EPS forecasts for 2024E/2025E/2026E are maintained at RMB 0 46/0 53/0 59 [2] Valuation - The stock is valued at 15x 2024E PE above the Wind consensus-based peers' average of 11 7x [2] - Potential upside of 46% based on the target price of RMB 6 90 and closing price of RMB 4 71 as of 7 Aug [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Bank of Hangzhou is maintained at OVERWEIGHT with a target price of RMB14.42, indicating a potential upside of 12% from the closing price of RMB12.93 as of 7 August 2024 [6][28]. Core Insights - In 1H24, Bank of Hangzhou experienced a revenue growth of 5.4% year-on-year and attributable net profits increased by 20.1% year-on-year, reflecting a strong performance with stable asset quality [1][2]. - The bank's total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 13.8%, 16.5%, and 13.7% year-on-year respectively, with significant increases in loan and deposit amounts compared to the previous year [2]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained low at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 545%, indicating strong risk management capabilities [3][4]. Financial Projections - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB2.91, RMB3.47, and RMB4.13 respectively, with a book value per share (BVPS) of RMB18.02 for 2024 [1][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB36.6 billion in 2024 to RMB41.8 billion in 2026, while net profit attributable to the parent is projected to rise from RMB17.3 billion in 2024 to RMB24.5 billion in 2026 [11][12]. Market Position and Strategy - Bank of Hangzhou operates in economically vibrant regions and focuses on corporate loans, particularly to government credits and state-owned enterprises, which supports its growth strategy [2][4]. - The bank has established a diversified shareholder base and has been a pioneer in tech-innovation banking, enhancing its competitive edge [4].

Equity Research Report Horizon Construction Development (9930 HK) Profit Grew Robustly; First-ever Interim Dividend Proposed Huatai Research Interim Results Review Rating (Maintain): BUY Target price (HKD): 2.59 12 August 2024 │ China (Hong Kong) Architectural Design & Services Revenue/attributable NP up 15.9/13.1% yoy in 1H24; maintain BUY In 1H24, Horizon reported revenue/attributable net profit (NP) of RMB4.87/0.27bn (up 15.9/13.1% yoy), sustaining robust growth. We attribute this mainly to continued gro ...

Equity Research Report Economics Potential Fed Cuts Opens Up Room for PBoC to Lower Rates 12 August 2024 │ China (Mainland) Quick Take Comment on PBoC's 2Q24 Monetary Policy Execution Report (MPER) Huatai Research Analyst Eva YI SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 Analyst CHANG Huili, PhD SAC No. S0570520110002 SFC No. BJC906 changhuili@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 Analyst WANG Mingshuo, PhD SAC No. S0570123070085 SFC No. BUP051 wangmingshuo@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 Concl ...

Equity Research Report Strategy On TSF: Adapting to 'New Normal', Steadily Progressing Market may have sufficiently priced in soft M1 and credit demand For June, China's total social financing (TSF)/new loans rose by RMB3.3/2.1tn yoy (vs Wind consensus of RMB3.2/1.1tn). Despite the lukewarm financial data due to the constraints on demand in June, there are sufficient market expectations for a 'new normal'. We highlight three points. 1) China's M1 yoy has yet to improve, with lingering impact of 'deposit mig ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the LatAm FX and Rates Analytics industry [1]. Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the FX performance across various Latin American countries, highlighting the relative performance of currencies against global drivers and domestic fundamentals [1][3]. - It includes a snapshot of monetary policy across Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Peru, indicating the current interest rates and market expectations for future changes [1][13]. - The report discusses the performance of nominal bonds and local fixed income markets, including issuance trends and foreign positioning in these markets [1][14]. Summary by Sections FX Performance - The report presents a summary of FX performance over different time frames, indicating a mixed performance with YTD changes showing a decline for several currencies [3]. - For instance, the Brazilian Real (BRL) has shown a YTD decline of -6.6%, while the Mexican Peso (MXN) has decreased by -2.9% [3]. Monetary Policy Snapshot - The monetary policy snapshot indicates that Brazil's current interest rate is 10.55%, with expectations for slight adjustments in the coming months [1][13]. - Mexico's interest rate is currently at 5.62%, with a projected path indicating a potential increase [1][13]. Local Market Analytics - The report details the local fixed income market dynamics, including recent and upcoming auctions, and the positioning of foreign investors in local bonds [1][14]. - It highlights that Brazil and Mexico are key players in the local fixed income market, with significant foreign interest [1][14]. FX vs Global Drivers - The analysis includes the beta of various currencies to global commodities such as oil and copper, indicating how these currencies respond to global market movements [1][7]. - For example, the report notes that the MXN has a beta of -0.30 to oil, suggesting a negative correlation with oil price movements [7]. FX vs Domestic Fundamentals - The report examines the relationship between currency performance and domestic economic fundamentals, such as current account balances and fiscal positions [1][9]. - It indicates that the RUB and ZAR have shown significant changes in their FX performance relative to their current account balances [9][11].