I/O Fund's Kindig Reacts to More China Chip Curbs

Market Dynamics & Geopolitics - US government aims to restrict China's access to advanced technology due to national security concerns, signaling strong demand control [2] - Despite restrictions, NVIDIA desires to continue selling into the Chinese market long term [1] - US has been preparing for supply chain localization for years, evidenced by Taiwan Semiconductor's Arizona fab [4] - Concerns exist regarding the impact on companies exposed to potential restrictions, particularly American companies [5] NVIDIA's Position & Demand - Industry anticipates NVIDIA will maintain its leading position, with no demand issues expected through 2025 [9] - Demand for AI chips is strong, potentially reaching $500 billion to $700 billion by the end of the decade or higher [6] - The technology is primarily enterprise and sovereign AI focused, reducing reliance on China compared to consumer technologies [7] Supply Chain & Alternatives - The industry is exploring hardware alternatives beyond NVIDIA, including companies involved in custom silicon and inference, such as Stellar Labs [11] - Potential impacts on cloud providers like Oracle, which are building out cloud offerings in regions like Malaysia, need consideration due to GPU access limitations [10] Demand Signals - Key demand signals are tracked through GPU generation product roadmaps, AI, video, and supply chain partners [9]