X @郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

Supply Chain Analysis - OpenAI plans to deploy 1 GW of AMD MI450 systems in the second half of 2026 [1] - AMD's current CoWoS order plan, estimated at 60K-80K wafers in 2026 (80-90% for MI400 series), is sufficient to support the 1 GW build-out [2] - 1 GW MI450 deployment translates to roughly 50K CoWoS-L wafers [2] Beneficiaries and Suppliers - Suppliers tied to HBM and UALink are the main beneficiaries of OpenAI's AMD order [3] - Samsung is the primary supplier of HBM4 for the MI450 [3] - Strong order visibility should positively impact the stock prices of related suppliers like Astera Labs [3] Competitive Landscape - Rolling out 1 GW of MI450 systems is unlikely to be without challenges, based on Nvidia's experience [4] - Nvidia is actively increasing competition before AMD's rack-level servers start shipping in volume [4] - OpenAI's partnership with AMD should have a limited impact on Nvidia, provided the overall AI compute market continues to expand [4]