X @郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

Semiconductor Strategy & Validation - Ming-Chi Kuo's analysis and predictions regarding Elon Musk's semiconductor strategy are validated by Musk's remarks at the latest Tesla shareholder meeting [1] - Musk anticipates transitioning to AI6 within a year of AI5 production, aiming to double performance metrics, aligning with industry projections of AI6 mass production in 2027 [1] Tesla's Chip Production Ambitions - Musk's intention to build Tesla's own chip production plants validates the view that shifting AI6 orders to Samsung was to gain foundry experience at a low cost [2] - Musk is concerned about future chip supply, stating current supplier capacity projections are insufficient [2] - The industry believes TSMC is unlikely to be the primary bottleneck, as TSMC CEO indicated willingness to supply chips if Tesla is willing to pay [2] Geopolitical & Strategic Considerations - Geopolitical concerns, particularly the concentration of advanced node capacity in Taiwan, drive Musk's desire for a Tesla chip production plant [3] - TSMC's advanced-node and advanced-packaging capacity in the U S is expected to remain limited, likely no more than approximately 10% of its global capacity by 2030 [3] - Tesla, as a second-tier customer at TSMC, experiences less priority on R&D support and production flexibility, motivating the move of AI6 to Samsung and the pursuit of its own chip production [3] Integration & Customization Advantages - Customizing key design and manufacturing segments, particularly chip production, enables a highly integrated final product and maximizes the benefits of vertical integration for Tesla's cutting-edge technologies [4]