Tesla(US:TSLA) 大鱼聊电动·2025-11-24 09:45Tesla Valuation and Market Perception - An analyst with a physics background and M&A experience at Goldman Sachs predicts Tesla's stock will reach $600 within 12 months and $1,000 within 24 months, based on a 3,000-line Excel model [1] - The analysis suggests Tesla has a unique trading range, with a median forward PE of 184x after Trump's election and Musk's rise, indicating an "Elon premium" [1] - The report advises against adjusting the multiple, as it is market-driven, and suggests that the political environment and Robotaxi narrative support this high valuation [1] Q4 Earnings and Future Catalysts - The model anticipates a potential 25% quarter-over-quarter demand decrease in the US market for Q4 due to changing electric vehicle tax credit policies [1] - The analysis highlights strong search interest in China for Tesla and Xiaomi electric vehicles, with Model Y generating nearly $4 billion in revenue and Xiaomi SU7 following with $19 billion in the past three months [1] - The report forecasts Q4 EPS to reach $053, exceeding the Wall Street consensus of $044, driven by a purchase surge due to expiring tax incentives and Tesla's 5-year 0% interest policy in China [1] - The core catalyst for future stock price growth is anticipated to be the qualitative change in FSD, specifically the "Nap Feature," which will drive utility and consumer adoption [1] Tesla Semi Analysis - The analysis estimates the 500-mile range Tesla Semi's actual price to be around $340,000 in 2026, after factoring in the $40,000 commercial clean vehicle tax credit [2] - The report suggests Tesla may have already secured agreements with major clients like PepsiCo and Ryder before the potential elimination of electric vehicle subsidies [2] - Windrose, a Chinese-backed startup, is identified as a potential competitor with its R700 truck offering a 418-mile range at $250,000 [2] Total Cost of Ownership and Future Potential - The analysis estimates Tesla Semi can save $200,000 in energy costs over 1 million miles compared to diesel trucks, with electricity costs of $340,000 versus diesel fuel costs of $543,000 [2] - Maintenance costs for Tesla Semi are estimated at $7,500 per year, saving $90,000 over the vehicle's lifecycle compared to diesel trucks with $15,000 annual maintenance costs [2] - The potential for FSD to eliminate driver costs of $70,000-$100,000 per year is highlighted as a game-changer for the trucking industry [2]