Baolong Automotive(SH:603197) 汽车琰究·2025-05-01 02:33Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 7.025 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.12%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 303 million yuan, a decrease of 20.14% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 1.905 billion yuan, up 28.46% year-on-year, and a net profit of 95 million yuan, up 39.99% year-on-year [2][4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.71% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.46%. The revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.905 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 28.46% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.69%. The growth in revenue was attributed to increased sales from key customers, with 92,864 vehicles delivered by Li Auto in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.50% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q4 2024 was 54 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.71% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 46.20%, impacted by stock incentive costs and shipping fees. In Q1 2025, the net profit was 95 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.99% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 76.46% [2][3]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 22.18%, down 4.00 percentage points year-on-year and 2.42 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to changes in product mix. The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.25%, down 6.20 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.07 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. Expense Analysis - In Q4 2024, the expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 2.83%, 3.80%, 7.64%, and 2.37%, respectively, showing year-on-year changes of -2.50, -2.42, -1.47, and +1.13 percentage points. The financial cost changes were due to increased interest expenses. In Q1 2025, the expense ratios were 2.87%, 5.94%, 6.96%, and 0.47%, with year-on-year changes of -0.79, -1.65, -1.91, and -1.36 percentage points, indicating a decrease in stock incentive costs [2][3]. Business Growth and Orders - The company’s emerging businesses are growing rapidly, with sensor revenue reaching 665 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.37%, accounting for 9.71% of total revenue. As of Q1 2025, the ADAS business had accumulated orders exceeding 6.67 billion yuan, with new orders of 712 million yuan added in Q1 2025 [3]. - The air suspension business also showed significant growth, with revenue of 993 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.80%, accounting for 14.51% of total revenue. As of Q1 2025, the air suspension business had accumulated orders exceeding 23.48 billion yuan [4]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains a leading global market share in traditional businesses, with a solid foundation. The emerging business product matrix is complete, creating new growth points. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 8.676 billion, 10.836 billion, and 13.057 billion yuan, with net profits of 501 million, 654 million, and 836 million yuan, respectively. Corresponding EPS estimates are 2.34, 3.05, and 3.90 yuan, with PE ratios of 16, 12, and 10 times [4][6].