微软第三季度财报公布后股价大涨，但仍有上涨空间

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft reported strong earnings, reinforcing its position as a high-quality company heavily investing in artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure, with expectations of accelerated free cash flow growth post FY2025 [2][21]. Performance Overview - For Q3 FY2025, Microsoft achieved revenue of $70.06 billion, a 13.2% increase, exceeding market expectations by $1.62 billion; diluted EPS grew 19% to $3.46, also above the expected $3.22 [4]. - Operating income reached $32 billion, up 16%, with Azure leading growth at a 33% revenue increase [4][6]. - Microsoft Cloud revenue grew 22% year-over-year, with Azure maintaining over 30% growth quarter-over-quarter [4]. Free Cash Flow - Operating cash flow increased from $31.917 billion to $37.044 billion, while free cash flow slightly declined from $20.965 billion to $20.299 billion due to high capital expenditures [10]. - Management anticipates free cash flow to rise again after FY2025 as capital expenditure growth slows [11]. Capital Expenditure Insights - Capital expenditures for the quarter were $16.745 billion, with about half allocated to long-term assets related to cloud computing and AI [12]. - CFO Amy Hood indicated that capital expenditure growth will slow post-FY2025, focusing more on short-term assets [12]. Valuation and Market Position - The stock is currently trading at approximately $424, with a TTM adjusted EPS of $12.94 and a P/E ratio of 32.8, which is considered reasonable compared to historical levels [14]. - Despite concerns about high valuation, Microsoft is viewed as a safe investment in the AI growth sector, supporting its current P/E ratio [14][16]. Future Projections - For Q4, Azure is expected to grow by 34-35%, with total revenue projected between $73.15 billion and $74.25 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 13.9% [15]. - The target price for FY2026 is set around $500, based on an expected adjusted EPS of $15.04 and a P/E ratio of 32.8, indicating a potential upside of 16.3% [19][20].