做空英伟达的时机到了么？

Core Viewpoint - The market reaction to DeepSeek's rise should not lead to the unreasonable selling of Nvidia stocks, as the situation is not as dire as perceived [1]. Group 1: Market Perception and Competition - Prior to the release of DeepSeek's R1 model, there was a widespread belief that China lagged significantly behind the US in AI, with Eric Schmidt stating a 2-3 year lead for the US due to chip bans and investment disparities [2]. - DeepSeek's previous models failed to gain traction, but the R1 model demonstrated that advanced models could be developed using older GPUs, which could lead to increased GPU demand due to wider AI adoption [3]. - Nvidia's sales distribution shows that only 47% of its revenue comes from the US, indicating the importance of other regions like Singapore, which serves as a billing hub rather than a primary shipping destination [6][7]. Group 2: Risks and Developments - The ban on Nvidia's H20 and A100 chips for China poses a risk, as DeepSeek reportedly owns around 10,000 A100 chips, acquired through significant investments from the High-Flyer Quant Fund [9]. - China is investing heavily in developing its own chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia, which could potentially account for about 20% of Nvidia's sales if successful [10]. - DeepSeek is reportedly using Huawei's Ascend 910B chips for its upcoming R2 model, which could disrupt Nvidia's market position if confirmed [12][15]. Group 3: Future Implications - If DeepSeek announces the use of Huawei chips for R2, it could lead to a significant drop in Nvidia's stock price, similar to the reaction following the R1 release [16]. - The potential for Nvidia's stock to decline is high, given the current market dynamics and the possibility of DeepSeek's shift to local chip suppliers [17].