摩根大通交易员“画线”：美股先破6000，后创新低

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley traders are more optimistic about the U.S. stock market compared to Goldman Sachs, predicting that the S&P 500 index will first reach 6000 points before facing potential declines [1][2]. Group 1: S&P 500 Index Projections - As of May 5, the S&P 500 index closed at 5650 points, indicating less than a 10% upside to Morgan Stanley's target of 6000 points [3]. - Morgan Stanley outlines a potential path for the S&P 500 to reach 6000 points, driven by factors such as the activation of CTA strategies, accelerated stock buybacks, and retail investor participation [5][8]. - The firm suggests that if the index surpasses 5800 points, it could trigger a short squeeze, leading to further upward momentum [5]. Group 2: Mid-term Outlook - Despite the optimistic short-term outlook, Morgan Stanley warns that reaching 6000 points may represent a peak, with a subsequent bearish outlook for the mid-term [4][10]. - The firm anticipates a significant decline in hard economic data, such as non-farm payrolls and retail sales, within the next 1-2 months [10]. - Two potential narratives could emerge regarding the economic situation: high tariffs with ongoing trade negotiations or a temporary economic soft landing due to signed agreements [11][12]. Group 3: Potential Downside Risks - Morgan Stanley believes that the most likely scenario involves high tariffs persisting, which could hinder the stock market's performance [13]. - The firm predicts that the market may retest lower levels, with potential downward adjustments to S&P 500 earnings expectations [14]. - A rapid decline to 5000 points could occur if macroeconomic data deteriorates significantly, such as non-farm payrolls falling below 50,000, and unresolved trade relations [16].