Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 华尔街见闻·2025-05-06 10:28Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the US dollar is currently overvalued by approximately 16%, driven by global capital chasing the attractive returns in the US [1][2][3] - As the US return advantage diminishes, the overvaluation of the dollar is expected to gradually correct, indicating potential mid-term adjustment pressure on dollar-denominated assets [2][9] - Goldman Sachs employs two primary models, GSDEER and GSFEER, to assess dollar valuation, revealing that the actual trade-weighted dollar index is about 16% higher than its fair value [3][4] Group 2 - The GSDEER model, an enhanced version of the purchasing power parity (PPP) model, suggests that the actual exchange rate tends to revert to a long-term mean, influenced by productivity and trade condition differences [4][5] - The GSFEER model focuses on economic imbalances, linking currency valuation to a country's current account and its "standard level," indicating that the dollar is overvalued by approximately 17% [5][6] - The current US current account deficit is around 4%, and if it narrows to 2.6%, it could lead to a 16.5% adjustment in the dollar; further reductions to 2% and 1% could result in 22% and 31% depreciation, respectively [7][8] Group 3 - The research highlights that the degree of dollar overvaluation is highly dependent on the assumptions regarding the current account "standard level," with the US being a relatively closed economy [8] - Historical examples, such as the rapid depreciation of the British pound post-Brexit and the euro during the gas price shock, illustrate that currencies can adjust quickly to reach fair value [8][9] - The article emphasizes that once fair value is reached, currencies can overshoot, and the persistent overvaluation of the dollar may witness gradual adjustments as the US relative return advantage weakens [9]