LI AUTO(US:LI) 理想TOP2·2025-05-06 11:42Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to report Q1 2025 revenue between 25.54 billion to 26.15 billion, with a gross margin of approximately 19.5% to 20.0%, resulting in a gross profit of around 4.98 billion to 5.23 billion. Operating profit may range from negative 0.3 billion to positive 0.9 billion, while free cash flow is anticipated to be negative by a few billion [1][3][7]. Revenue Projections - For Q4 2024, revenue estimates are 46.28 billion if data is accurate, or 44.94 billion if not, with actual revenue reported at 44.3 billion [1]. - The average monthly revenue for October to December 2024 is calculated using two methods, showing minor discrepancies for October and November but a significant difference of nearly 1 billion for December [2]. - The expected revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to be lower than Q4 2024 by approximately 18.12 billion to 18.73 billion [7]. Gross Margin and Profitability - The company anticipates a vehicle gross margin of 19% for Q1 2025, leading to total gross profit estimates of 4.98 billion to 5.23 billion [3][4]. - Operating expenses for Q4 2024 were reported at 5.267 billion, and if maintained, the minimum operating profit for Q1 2025 could be negative 2.87 billion [4][6]. Cash Flow Analysis - Free cash flow is challenging to quantify but is qualitatively linked to revenue differences between quarters. A positive revenue difference typically correlates with positive free cash flow [6][8]. - Historical data shows that since the company's U.S. listing in July 2020, free cash flow has been positive in most quarters, except for Q3 2022 [8]. Strategic Outlook - The company aims to maintain a sales rhythm similar to the launch of models L8 and L9 in 2022, which is expected to help sustain order levels for Q1 2025 [1][8].