AI 猛投、关税搅局，亚马逊重进 “下蹲期”？

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's performance in Q1 2024 was generally in line with expectations, with a notable increase in AWS profit margins, but a decline in retail profitability, particularly in North America, indicating a shift from a profit release cycle to an investment cycle [11][12]. AWS Performance - AWS revenue growth was 16.9% year-over-year, a slowdown of 2 percentage points from the previous quarter and below market expectations of 17.3% [4][13]. - Despite the revenue slowdown, AWS's operating profit margin was unexpectedly strong at 39.5%, exceeding both previous quarter results and market expectations by 2.6 percentage points and 4 percentage points, respectively [5][17]. - The market remains skeptical about AWS's ability to accelerate growth in the second half of the year due to supply constraints in high-performance GPU and data center capabilities [15][19]. Retail Performance - The overall retail segment revenue was $126.4 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 6.9%, reflecting a decline of 2.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][19]. - North American retail growth decreased from 9.5% to 7.6%, indicating weakening consumer demand, while international retail nominal growth dropped to 4.9% [6][19]. - Subscription services showed resilience with a 9.6% year-over-year growth, while advertising revenue grew by 17.7%, both outperforming market expectations [7][19]. Profitability Insights - The company achieved an overall operating profit of $18.4 billion, slightly above market expectations of $17.5 billion [27]. - North American retail operating profit margin fell to 6.3%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous quarter, while international retail margins remained stable at 3% [29][32]. - The increase in capital expenditures (Capex) to $26 billion indicates ongoing high investment levels, which may impact short-term profitability [35]. Future Guidance - For the next quarter, Amazon expects revenue in the range of $159 billion to $164 billion, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 9.1%, which is stronger than anticipated given the expected tariff impacts [8][9]. - However, the guidance for operating profit suggests a decline in profit margins, indicating potential challenges in maintaining profitability across both retail and AWS segments [9][12].