拼多多遇上一道坎儿

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of a new U.S. tariff policy on Chinese e-commerce, particularly focusing on Pinduoduo and its cross-border business, which is expected to face significant challenges due to increased import duties starting May 2, 2025 [3][34]. Revenue Growth Dynamics - Pinduoduo's revenue structure has undergone significant changes, with advertising and commission revenues becoming the primary sources of income, while product sales revenue has diminished to negligible levels [6][8]. - In 2023, advertising revenue reached 1,535.4 billion, accounting for 62% of total revenue, while commission revenue surged to 941 billion, making up 38% [6][10]. - The company has shifted its strategy to focus on advertising and commissions, moving away from self-operated retail, which was a temporary measure during its early years [9][10]. Commission Revenue Surge - Commission revenue has become the main driver of growth, with a dramatic increase of 240.6% in 2023, contributing 56.8% to overall revenue growth for the first time [10][12]. - The growth of commission revenue can be divided into three phases, with the most significant increase occurring after the launch of Temu in September 2022, which adopted a full-service model [12][27]. Profitability and Cash Flow - Pinduoduo's gross profit has increased significantly, from 238 billion in 2019 to 2,400 billion in 2024, representing a growth of 908% over five years [16][20]. - The company has transitioned from substantial losses to profitability, achieving an operating profit of 1,084 billion in 2024, with a profit margin of 27.5% [19][20]. - Operating cash flow has consistently been positive, indicating high-quality earnings, with cash flow in 2024 reaching 1,219 billion, surpassing net profit [22][24]. Market Reaction and Future Outlook - Despite the negative news regarding tariffs, Pinduoduo's stock price remained relatively stable, suggesting that the market had already priced in these risks [30][34]. - Analysts believe that the cross-border business challenges are temporary, and there is potential for recovery and growth in other markets, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia [34][35].