SAIC MOTOR(SH:600104) 光大证券研究·2025-05-08 09:13Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant challenges in 2024, with a projected revenue decline and substantial net profit drop, but there are signs of recovery in early 2025 due to improved vehicle sales [3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating revenue is expected to decrease by 15.4% year-on-year to 614.07 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to drop by 88.2% to 1.67 billion yuan [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a slight revenue decline of 0.9% year-on-year but a recovery in net profit, which increased by 11.4% year-on-year to 3.02 billion yuan [3]. - The decline in 2024 is primarily attributed to a drop in vehicle sales and losses from SAIC-GM, with a significant increase in non-recurring gains from the MG India equity transfer and capital increase [3]. Group 2: Joint Ventures and Partnerships - Investment income from joint ventures and associates in 2024 is expected to be a loss of 1.33 billion yuan, a stark contrast to a profit of 10.72 billion yuan in 2023 [4]. - SAIC Volkswagen's sales are projected to decline by 5.5% in 2024, while net profit is expected to rise by 51.3% [4]. - SAIC GM is facing a severe decline in sales by 56.5% in 2024, resulting in a net loss of 26.69 billion yuan [4]. - SAIC-GM-Wuling is expected to see a slight sales decline of 4.5% in 2024, but net profit is projected to increase by 12.3% [4]. Group 3: Export and Brand Development - In 2024, SAIC's export retail sales are expected to increase by 2.6% to 1.082 million units, aided by new vehicle shipments to Europe and expansion into new markets [5]. - The company is actively addressing EU anti-subsidy investigations and has reached a consensus with the EU to explore a "minimum import price" mechanism for electric vehicles [5]. - The share of SAIC's self-owned brand sales is projected to rise by 5 percentage points to approximately 60% in 2024, with ongoing integration of the Roewe and Feifan brands [5].