英伟达股价较峰值下跌21%。是时候买入了吗？

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang highlighted the role of artificial intelligence in San Francisco's recovery post-pandemic, raising questions about Nvidia's own growth amidst increasing competition and trade tensions [1]. Group 1: Nvidia's Current Situation - Nvidia's stock price has dropped nearly 21% from its recent high of $149.42 on January 6, attributed to rising competition from DeepSeek and the impact of trade wars [1]. - Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya predicts that tariff headwinds could reduce Nvidia's revenue from China by $15 billion to $20 billion, casting a shadow over the upcoming earnings report [1]. - Nvidia has informed major clients in China, including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, about modifications to its AI chip design to comply with U.S. export restrictions, which is expected to result in a $5.5 billion loss in Q1 performance [1]. Group 2: Broader Industry Context - The performance of the seven major tech giants, including Nvidia, has lagged behind the S&P 500 index this year, contrasting sharply with expectations for 2024 [2]. - The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) shows that the expected revenue and earnings for these seven companies have reached historical highs, indicating their enduring market dominance [4]. - The Magnificent Seven companies account for 28.4% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, 22.6% of expected revenue, and 11.8% of expected earnings [4]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Valuation - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, emphasizing ongoing market uncertainty due to trade policy and negative GDP growth in Q1 [6]. - Nvidia's price-to-earnings ratio has significantly compressed this year, yet the stock remains expensive compared to the S&P 500 [7]. - The earnings gap between the Magnificent Seven and the S&P 500 is narrowing, with projections indicating that this gap will reduce to 2% by Q4 as earnings growth slows [7]. - As the returns of the Magnificent Seven lag behind the S&P 500, justifying the purchase of such expensive stocks becomes increasingly difficult despite Nvidia's high PEG ratio and other positive factors [9].