XIAOMI(HK:01810) 华尔街见闻·2025-05-10 11:47Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi is expected to replicate the success of tech giants like Apple, driven by strong performance in electric vehicles and smartphones, with Morgan Stanley projecting a market value of 2.5 trillion RMB by 2030 and a stock price exceeding 100 HKD, indicating nearly 100% upside potential in the next five years [1][2]. Group 1: Electric Vehicle Business - Morgan Stanley predicts Xiaomi's electric vehicle (EV) sales will grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 100%, and the price-to-sales ratio (P/S) expected to reach 2-3 times by 2026 [2][12]. - Revenue from the EV business is projected to increase from 33 billion RMB in 2024 to 233 billion RMB in 2027, and further to 462 billion RMB by 2030, with profits expected to turn from a loss of 6.2 billion RMB in 2024 to a profit of 46 billion RMB by 2030 [3][6]. - The launch of the SU7 Ultra marks a significant milestone for Xiaomi, enhancing its brand value and market share in the high-end EV segment [5]. Group 2: Traditional Business - Xiaomi's traditional business, encompassing smartphones, AIoT, and internet services, is expected to benefit from market share gains, product mix improvements, and international expansion, with revenue projected to rise from 333 billion RMB in 2024 to 600 billion RMB by 2030 [4]. - Profit from traditional business is anticipated to grow from 33.4 billion RMB in 2024 to 70 billion RMB by 2030 [4]. Group 3: Valuation Comparisons - Morgan Stanley uses comparisons with Tesla, BYD, and Apple to provide a valuation framework for Xiaomi, noting that BYD's EV sales grew approximately 70% in 2020 and 150% in 2021, with significant increases in P/S and P/E ratios during that period [11][13]. - The report suggests that Xiaomi's EV business could achieve a valuation premium compared to other EV companies due to expected stronger growth by 2025 [18]. Group 4: Future Projections - By 2030, Xiaomi's total revenue is projected to exceed 1 trillion RMB, with net profits potentially surpassing 100 billion RMB [6]. - In a baseline scenario, Xiaomi's market value could reach 1.2-1.6 trillion RMB in the next 6-12 months, corresponding to a stock price of 50-67 HKD [16]. In an optimistic scenario, the stock price could rise to 75-85 HKD, while a pessimistic scenario could see it drop to 25-40 HKD [17].