Nvidia(US:NVDA) 美股研究社·2025-05-12 10:48Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price has increased by 34% since April 6, despite the announcement of needing a license to export its H20 GPU to China, indicating strong market confidence in the company's valuation and future performance [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts maintain a strong buy rating for Nvidia, expecting the company's performance at the end of the month to exceed that of the first quarter, despite some export challenges related to the H20 GPU [3]. - Following the 8-K report, Nvidia's stock experienced a 7% sell-off, but analysts remain unperturbed, viewing the stock as undervalued compared to its historical performance and peers like AMD [1][3]. - Since the announcement on April 15, Nvidia's stock has risen by 5% [7]. Group 2: Revenue Projections and Market Dynamics - Analysts estimate that selling 1 million H20 GPUs in 2024 could generate $12 billion in revenue, which may contribute to a decline in overall profit margins since the second quarter of 2024 [4]. - Major Chinese clients, including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, ordered over $16 billion worth of H20 chips in the first three months of the year, indicating strong demand [8]. - Nvidia's stock remains lower than its peers in most valuation ratios, suggesting potential for future appreciation as the market recognizes this undervaluation by 2025 [10]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Competitive Landscape - The recent withdrawal of AI diffusion rules by the Trump administration has introduced uncertainty for the U.S. semiconductor industry, potentially benefiting Nvidia [8]. - Nvidia's ability to adapt to export regulations is demonstrated by the development of new chips (H20, L20, and L2) that comply with these regulations, with a planned release in early 2024 [3]. - The pricing of the H20 chip is reported to be over 10% cheaper than Huawei's Ascend 910B, which may impact profit margins [3].