芯片关税，或于6月底生效

Core Viewpoint - The proposed semiconductor tariffs by the U.S. Department of Commerce could significantly impact the semiconductor industry, particularly affecting the cost of building and operating fabs, with potential increases in investment requirements for major companies like TSMC [1][2]. Impact of Semiconductor Tariffs - The semiconductor industry is preparing for tariffs that may take effect as early as June, with major players like SK Hynix and HP involved in the public consultation process [1]. - A 1% increase in tariffs on semiconductor manufacturing inputs could raise the total cost of building a fab by 0.64% [1]. - Under a 10% tariff scenario, TSMC would need an additional investment of $6.4 billion to meet its initial $100 billion target [1]. - The cost of building and operating fabs in the U.S. is already 30% to 50% higher than in Asia, and tariffs on equipment and materials would exacerbate this disparity [1]. - For every $1 increase in chip prices, the end products containing semiconductors would need to increase by $3 to maintain existing profit margins [1]. Characteristics of Affected Chips - Mature node chips, which account for over 80% of global production but only about 40% of revenue, are expected to be the most affected by the tariffs [2]. - These mature chips support downstream industries valued at over $10.8 trillion, making the tariffs a potentially disruptive force in the global tech ecosystem [2]. - Tariffs may vary based on the "wafer origin," meaning the actual production location of the chips, with rates potentially ranging from 25% to 100% [2].