Tesla(US:TSLA) 财富FORTUNE·2025-05-11 13:04Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk's political activities have sparked controversy, negatively impacting Tesla's sales and stock price, despite a significant surge in stock value following the 2024 U.S. presidential election [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - Tesla's stock price increased by over 50% in just over a month, adding nearly $500 billion to its market capitalization, reversing a three-year decline [1]. - The company's basic earnings for fiscal year 2024 were calculated at $4.2 billion after excluding special items, leading to a target market valuation of $84 billion based on a P/E ratio of 20 [3][4]. - Tesla's actual market capitalization was $746 billion as of March 17, which is 178 times its basic earnings, indicating a significant "Musk Magic Premium" of $662 billion [5]. Group 2: Future Growth Expectations - To justify its current stock price, Tesla would need to achieve a net profit of approximately $50 billion by 2032, requiring a compound annual growth rate of 43% from its current earnings [6]. - The company’s automotive revenue only grew by $200 million in 2024, with a 50% drop in European revenue and an 11% decline in China at the start of 2025, raising concerns about its growth engine losing momentum [7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Challenges - Tesla faces intense competition from other companies with ambitious visions, which could compress profit margins and challenge Musk's long-term claims of a sustainable "flywheel effect" for continuous investment and growth [7]. - Musk's recent political engagements and criticisms of the U.S. economy may exacerbate Tesla's internal challenges, complicating the path to achieving projected growth [8].