Nvidia(US:NVDA) 郭磊宏观茶座·2025-05-14 14:36Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continued cooling of U.S. inflation data in April 2025, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year decrease to 2.3%, slightly below market expectations, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1][6][7]. Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - The CPI year-on-year decreased to 2.3%, down from 2.4% in the previous period, while the month-on-month change was +0.2%, compared to -0.1% previously [1][6][7]. - Core CPI remained stable at +2.8% year-on-year and increased by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1][10][11]. - The Cleveland Fed's Trimmed Mean CPI for April was 2.97%, slightly lower than the previous 2.99%, suggesting a continued decline in inflation breadth and stickiness [10][11]. Group 2: Structural Components of CPI - Food prices showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, primarily driven by a drop in household food prices, which fell by 0.4% [2][8][11]. - Core goods and services prices increased month-on-month, with medical goods contributing significantly to this rise [2][11][12]. - The core services index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the previous 0.1%, indicating a rebound in service-related inflation [2][11]. Group 3: Impact of Tariffs on Inflation - The article explores why U.S. CPI did not rise despite high tariffs, attributing it to factors such as the time lag in tariff transmission to consumer prices and preemptive stockpiling by consumers and businesses [3][14][15]. - The significant drop in egg prices, which fell by 12.7% month-on-month, also contributed to the overall CPI stability [3][14][15]. - The article notes that despite the reduction in effective tariff rates, the overall tariff levels remain higher than before the so-called "liberation day," indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [4][16][17]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - The cooling inflation data positively impacted overseas risk assets, with U.S. stock markets showing strong performance, particularly in the technology sector [5][18]. - The Nasdaq index rebounded by 1.6%, with Nvidia's stock rising approximately 6% due to anticipated sales to Saudi Arabia [5][18]. - The article suggests that the current economic environment, characterized by stable inflation and reduced recession risks, may lead to a more favorable outlook for U.S. economic fundamentals [17][18].