洋河增长困境，谁最着急？

Core Viewpoint - Yanghe Co., Ltd. is facing significant growth challenges, with declining revenue and profit in 2024, leading to a drop in industry ranking to fifth place, reflecting both industry cycles and internal strategic issues [1][4][5] Financial Performance - In 2024, Yanghe's revenue decreased by 12.83% to 28.876 billion yuan, and net profit fell by 33.37% to 6.673 billion yuan [4][8] - The first quarter of 2025 saw further declines, with revenue and net profit dropping by 31.92% and 39.93% respectively [4][8] - Yanghe's production volume in 2024 was 145,000 tons, down 8.4% year-on-year, while sales volume decreased by 16.3% [8] Market Position and Competition - Yanghe is the only company in the 30 billion yuan revenue group to experience a decline, being surpassed by Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [5][6] - The overall white liquor market is entering a phase of "stock competition," with Yanghe's main products under pressure in the mid-range and sub-high-end segments [8][9] - Competitors like Moutai and Wuliangye have established strong market positions, while Yanghe struggles in both high-end and low-end markets [9][10] Channel and Strategy Issues - Yanghe's traditional "deep distribution" model has led to inventory pressure and reduced dealer profits, prompting a shift to a new channel strategy [13][14] - Despite attempts to reform, the transition has not alleviated channel conflicts, resulting in a significant number of dealers exiting the market [15][19] - As of 2024, Yanghe had 8,866 dealers, but the average revenue contribution per dealer was only 3.14 million yuan, significantly lower than competitors [15] Internal Governance and Management - The company has experienced multiple leadership changes since 2019, leading to a lack of strategic continuity [21][22] - The current board lacks representation from individuals with grassroots experience in Yanghe, which has contributed to governance challenges [22][23] - Yanghe's stock price has dropped over 70% since 2021, reflecting market skepticism about its future growth and management capabilities [20][21] Dividend Policy - In an effort to boost investor confidence, Yanghe announced cash dividends totaling 7 billion yuan in 2024, with a commitment to maintain annual dividends of at least 70% of net profit [26] - However, there are doubts among investors regarding the sustainability of these dividends given the company's declining revenue and profit [26]