黄金 VS 比特币-- 一场“零和博弈”已形成

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a notable asset reallocation process in the first half of the year, highlighting a shift from a synchronized rise of gold and Bitcoin to a "zero-sum game" dynamic, where the performance of one asset negatively impacts the other [1][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since reaching a peak of $3,500 on April 22, gold has declined nearly 8%, while Bitcoin has increased by 18% during the same period [1]. - Recent asset flow data indicates a clear "seesaw" effect, with outflows from physical gold and spot ETFs, contrasted by inflows into Bitcoin and cryptocurrency ETFs [3][9]. - The futures market reflects similar trends, with declining gold futures and significant growth in Bitcoin futures [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley anticipates that Bitcoin will outperform gold in the second half of the year due to several unique catalysts supporting Bitcoin's upward momentum [10]. - The trend of corporate accumulation of Bitcoin is evident, with companies like MicroStrategy planning to raise $42 billion by 2027 for Bitcoin purchases, having already completed 60% of their initial $42 billion plan [10]. - State government investments are entering the cryptocurrency market, with New Hampshire allowing up to 5% of state assets to be invested in Bitcoin and Arizona establishing a reserve fund for Bitcoin and other digital assets [12]. - The maturation of the derivatives market is also noted, with major acquisitions by U.S. cryptocurrency exchanges, indicating increased confidence and participation from traditional institutional investors [13].