当下最火的问题：美股反弹到头了吗？摩根大通市场部门：还没有，这真让人痛苦

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market is characterized by resilient macro data, improving earnings, and easing trade tensions, but it is considered the "least popular" rally due to the predominant buying from retail investors and corporations [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - Employment and consumer data are showing positive trends, with Nvidia expected to return to high growth, supported by trade agreements being reached [2] - The non-farm payroll data from May indicates that tariff impacts are unlikely to be reflected in the data, with potential upside surprises in June [2] - Retail sales data may underperform expectations but is still expected to support market growth, driven by strong consumer confidence [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Predictions - Nvidia's outlook is optimistic, with expectations for double-digit growth in earnings, supported by seasonal performance trends in June and July [3] - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach historical highs of 6144 points this quarter [1] - The rise in 10-year Treasury yields is prompting investors to shift towards high-quality stocks, particularly large tech stocks, while putting pressure on consumer staples and utilities [6] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Despite a significant market rebound, hedge funds are still net selling, and leverage remains near historical lows, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7] - There is a prevailing skepticism in the market, suggesting that if the current rebound is sustained, unexpected outcomes may arise [8] Group 4: Sector Insights - The industrial sector showed resilience during the market rebound, with cyclical stocks outperforming the broader market, indicating active buying rather than passive recovery [9] - Consumer spending data as of May 6 shows positive trends, reinforcing the optimistic outlook for the consumer sector [10] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The "Mag 7" stocks are returning to a traditional pattern where large tech stocks are favored during macroeconomic concerns [11] - There has been a reversal in the trend of capital flowing out of U.S. risk assets, with funds now returning to these assets, narrowing the gap in performance [12]