【广发宏观团队】下限已经抬高，上限尚待打开

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US-China trade relations and their implications for the global economy, particularly focusing on the potential for economic recovery and investment opportunities in various sectors. Group 1: Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in significant tariff reductions, alleviating extreme scenarios in bilateral trade and leading to a short-term boost in exports [1][8][9] - The effective tariff rate for the US has decreased from 23% to 13%, and for China, it has dropped to 31.8%, which is expected to lower recession risks in the US economy [8][9] - High-frequency shipping data indicates a recovery trend, suggesting a potential surge in exports from China, particularly in industries heavily reliant on the US market [20][21] Group 2: Economic Growth Drivers - The economic growth in early 2025 has been primarily driven by exports and investments in new sectors, with Q1 export delivery value increasing by 6.7% year-on-year [1] - Investment in equipment and appliances saw quarterly growth rates of 19.0% and 19.3%, respectively, contributing to economic stability [1] - Despite the positive export outlook, challenges remain in real estate, consumer spending, local investment, and price stability, which need to be addressed for sustained growth [2][3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Following the trade talks, global stock markets exhibited a "risk-on" sentiment, with the Nasdaq leading asset classes, and the VIX index falling below 20 [4][5] - A-shares shifted focus to fundamental recovery expectations, policy observation, and export logic, with the overall market showing resilience after previous tariff-related declines [7] - The performance of various sectors varied, with over 60% of industries recording positive returns, particularly in beauty care, non-banking financials, and automotive sectors [7] Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The article highlights the need for adjustments in monetary policy frameworks to address higher inflation volatility and supply shocks, as indicated by recent comments from the Federal Reserve [10][11] - The anticipated changes in the Fed's inflation targeting strategy may influence future economic conditions and investment strategies [11] Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - Industries with high export dependence on the US, such as electronics and automotive parts, are expected to benefit from the short-term "export rush" following tariff reductions [21] - The article notes that industrial product prices are stabilizing, while food prices are experiencing mixed trends, indicating a complex inflationary environment [22] Group 6: Infrastructure and Investment Trends - The government is increasing support for urban renewal projects, which may enhance infrastructure investment and stimulate economic activity [23][24] - Recent data shows improvements in funding availability for construction projects, particularly in non-residential sectors, indicating a positive trend for infrastructure development [18]