SWHY(SZ:000166) 赵伟宏观探索·2025-05-21 14:40Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, exploring international experiences and potential policies for China to address this issue. Group 1: International Experience in Addressing Low Birth Rates - European and East Asian economies have implemented various birth support policies, including cash subsidies and parental leave, which have shown positive effects on birth rates [2][27]. - OECD countries emphasize systematic and tiered birth support policies targeting parents, children, and businesses, with significant fiscal support and childcare services contributing to improved birth rates [2][31]. - Countries like France and Sweden have successfully increased their total fertility rates (TFR) above replacement levels due to robust fiscal support and comprehensive childcare systems, while South Korea and Singapore have seen limited success due to late and insufficient policy implementation [2][43]. Group 2: Characteristics of China's Population Changes - China's fertility rate has been declining, with the proportion of women of childbearing age decreasing from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023, alongside rising average marriage ages [3][67]. - The labor participation rate of women aged 15-64 remains high at around 70%, but the increasing costs of child-rearing and high employment rates contribute to lower fertility intentions [3][78]. - The flow of population, particularly among young adults, has been increasing, with 3.8 billion migrants by 2020, affecting birth intentions due to disparities in public services and household registration systems [4][84]. Group 3: Potential Fertility Policies for China - Local governments are beginning to implement child-rearing subsidies, with Hohhot offering significant financial support for families with children, which could lead to a total subsidy scale exceeding 370 billion yuan if adopted nationwide [5][96]. - A comprehensive support system is needed beyond cash subsidies, including employment rights for women, educational support, healthcare improvements, and housing policies to create a more favorable environment for child-rearing [5][96]. - Since 2013, China has gradually adjusted its family planning policies, moving from a "two-child" policy to a "three-child" policy, and has introduced tax incentives and local subsidies to encourage higher birth rates [5][96].