SWHY(SZ:000166) 申万宏源研究·2025-05-22 01:27Group 1 - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, highlighting the need for effective fertility policies based on international experiences and China's demographic characteristics [1][2][3] - It emphasizes that timely and substantial cash subsidies, maternity leave policies, and comprehensive support systems have shown positive effects in increasing birth rates in various OECD countries [2][31] - The article notes that countries like France and Sweden have successfully raised their total fertility rates above the warning line due to robust fiscal support and well-structured childcare systems [2][43] Group 2 - China's fertility rate has been declining, attributed to a decrease in the proportion of women of childbearing age, late marriage, and late childbirth trends [3][67] - The proportion of women of childbearing age in China has dropped from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023, with the average marriage age rising to around 28 years by 2020 [3][67] - The article highlights that the high costs of child-rearing, along with women's increasing educational attainment and employment rates, contribute to the declining birth rate in China [3][78] Group 3 - Potential fertility policies in China include cash subsidies, employment support, and improvements in education and healthcare systems [5][96] - Local governments are beginning to implement childcare subsidies, with Hohhot offering significant financial support for families with children [5] - If the Hohhot model is adopted nationwide, the total subsidy scale could exceed 370 billion yuan, representing about 1.3% of general fiscal expenditure [5] Group 4 - The article outlines the international experience of addressing low birth rates, categorizing policies into fiscal support, leave policies, and childcare education support [27][31] - It indicates that countries with comprehensive family welfare systems, such as France and Sweden, have seen significant improvements in their fertility rates due to effective policy implementation [43][60] - The article also points out that countries like South Korea and Singapore have struggled to achieve similar results due to late and insufficient policy measures [60][43]