携程的增长「神话」还能延续吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Ctrip's performance in the first quarter of 2025, highlighting the challenges in the domestic travel market while emphasizing the growth potential in international markets and the strategic importance of AI in the company's future plans [2][5][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Ctrip's overall operating revenue for Q1 2025 was 13.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.18%, while net profit attributable to Ctrip's shareholders was 4.277 billion yuan, slightly down by 0.81% [6]. - The accommodation booking business saw a revenue increase of 23% year-on-year, serving as the main driver for revenue growth, while ticketing business revenue growth slowed to 8.4% [6]. Group 2: Domestic Market Challenges - The domestic travel industry remains under pressure, with Huazhu Group reporting a RevPAR of 208 yuan per night, down 4% year-on-year, marking a new low since the pandemic recovery began in 2023 [7]. - The average ticket price for economy class during the peak "Eleventh" holiday last year was 845 yuan, a decrease of 15.1% compared to the same period last year [7]. Group 3: International Market Growth - Ctrip's high growth in accommodation bookings is primarily driven by international business, with inbound tourism bookings increasing by over 100% year-on-year, and hotel bookings from major visa-free countries in the Asia-Pacific region surging by 240% [7]. - Ctrip's overseas business, Trip, is expected to see its revenue share increase from around 10% last year to 18% by 2025, with potential long-term growth reaching 25% to 33% [8]. Group 4: AI Strategy - Ctrip's management has identified AI as a core component of its long-term strategy, with the AI assistant "Trip Genie" increasing average user session duration by approximately 50% [10]. - The AI chatbot and self-service tools handled over 80% of inquiries, saving the company over 10,000 hours of customer service work daily, equivalent to freeing up over 1,000 customer service personnel [10]. Group 5: AI Challenges - Despite the potential of AI, the actual implementation may face challenges, particularly in addressing core pain points in travel planning [11]. - Ctrip has launched the "Ctrip Ask" model for travel planning, but its practical application remains limited [11]. - The company has made executive adjustments to enhance its AI strategy, appointing a Chief Product Officer and a Chief Scientist to lead AI-related product strategies [12].