名创暴跌? 没有IP魂，搬不来下一个“泡泡玛特”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while Miniso's Q1 2025 revenue met expectations, the significant increase in marketing expenses led to core operating profits falling short of market forecasts [1][4][6] Group 2 - Overall revenue for Q1 2025 reached 4.43 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19%, aligning with expectations. Domestic revenue was 2.84 billion RMB, up 13.3%, while overseas revenue was 1.59 billion RMB, growing 30% [2][14] - The company has slowed its store opening pace, with a net decrease of 111 domestic stores, marking the first decline in total store count. Closures were primarily in lower-tier cities, while first-tier cities focused on optimizing store locations [3][17] - Same-store sales growth in China showed a narrowing decline, while overseas performance remained flat. New product categories and partnerships with Meituan enhanced store efficiency [24][25] - Gross margin remained stable at 44%, despite rising overseas procurement costs. The increase in IP licensing fees (up 40%) and significant rent and depreciation costs (up 71%) led to a marketing expense ratio of 23.1% [27][29] - Core operating profit and adjusted EBITDA were 710 million RMB and 1.04 billion RMB, respectively, both below market expectations [4][29] Group 3 - The article highlights that Miniso's strategy of relying on IP licensing has resulted in a lower premium compared to competitors with stronger original design capabilities, indicating a potential risk in profitability [6][7] - The increase in rental costs is attributed to the expansion of overseas direct stores, particularly in North America, raising concerns about the profitability of these operations [8][26] - Future performance is expected to improve as same-store sales in major markets, including the U.S., have turned positive since April, suggesting potential for marginal improvement in upcoming quarters [8][6]