2nm来了，台积电面临四大挑战

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's 2nm process is set to begin mass production in the second half of 2025, with a projected monthly capacity of 30,000 wafers by the end of the year, despite facing four significant challenges in the semiconductor supply chain [1][2][4]. Group 1: Production and Capacity - TSMC's 2nm process is expected to exceed the tape-out numbers of the 3nm process in its first two years, potentially driving a global product value of approximately $2.5 trillion within five years of mass production [3]. - The initial production site for the 2nm process will be the Fab 20 in Hsinchu, with an estimated capacity of 3,000 wafers per month by mid-2024, increasing to 22,000 wafers by the end of the year [3][4]. - The 2nm foundry service price is projected to rise to nearly $30,000 per wafer, contributing to TSMC's anticipated 25% growth in annual revenue [4]. Group 2: Challenges Facing TSMC - TSMC faces challenges including the need to expand its Arizona facility in response to U.S. government demands, which may impact future operational performance [1][2]. - Antitrust issues are becoming a concern as TSMC's market share in the global foundry market exceeds 60%, potentially reaching 70% by the end of the year, creating a divide between TSMC and its competitors [1][2]. - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and inflationary pressures pose significant challenges for cost management and pricing strategies within the semiconductor industry [2][4]. - Geopolitical factors are complicating TSMC's capacity planning, requiring a balance between maintaining operations in Taiwan and expanding manufacturing in the U.S. [2][4].