高盛人民币看7，还强调“每升1%，中国股市有望涨3%”

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the appreciation of the RMB will drive the Chinese stock market up, with a 1% appreciation potentially leading to a 3% increase in stock prices [1][9]. Group 1: RMB Appreciation and Stock Market Impact - A 1% appreciation of the RMB is expected to push the Chinese stock market up by 3%, indicating a strong positive correlation between currency strength and stock performance [3][9]. - Empirical data shows that Chinese stocks tend to perform well during periods of currency appreciation, with a historical correlation coefficient of 35% and a beta of 1.9 since 2012 [4]. Group 2: Factors Supporting RMB Resilience - The resilience of the RMB is attributed to several factors, including effective central bank management, improved competitiveness and diversification of Chinese exports, potential undervaluation of the RMB, and a general weakness of the USD [2]. - The direct trade exposure of China to the US has decreased over the past decade, with the US market accounting for approximately 15% of China's exports and 1.2% of listed company revenues in 2024, down from 19% and 1.6% in 2017 [2]. Group 3: Future RMB Exchange Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the USD/RMB exchange rate, predicting it will reach 7.20, 7.10, and 7.00 in the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively, indicating a potential 3% appreciation over the next year [2]. Group 4: Channels of Impact from RMB Appreciation - RMB appreciation can benefit Chinese stocks through various channels, including accounting effects, fundamental improvements, risk premium adjustments, and portfolio flows [5][6][7][8]. - Companies with USD-denominated debt or short positions in USD assets are expected to gain from foreign exchange trading profits when the USD weakens [6]. - A moderate appreciation of the RMB may alleviate concerns about capital outflows, positively impacting equity risk premiums and portfolio flows [8].