H20不能卖，英伟达毛利骤降

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is highly anticipated, with a focus on whether the gross margin can recover to 74-76% in the second half of 2025, despite recent challenges from U.S. export restrictions on AI chips to China [1][3]. Group 1: Earnings and Financial Projections - Analysts predict Nvidia will "moderately" exceed Wall Street's expectations for the upcoming quarterly earnings, although the ban on the H20 AI chip is expected to lower the gross margin to around 58% [1]. - Nvidia's revenue forecast for May to July has been adjusted down from $48 billion to $46.4 billion due to the impact of the H20 ban [1]. - The company originally anticipated a gross margin of 71% for the April to June period before the new export restrictions were implemented [1]. Group 2: Product Developments and Market Strategy - Nvidia plans to launch a new AI GPU specifically for the Chinese market, priced significantly lower than the H20, with production expected to start as early as June [2]. - The new GPU will utilize Nvidia's latest Blackwell architecture and is expected to be priced between $6,500 and $8,000, compared to the H20's price range of $10,000 to $12,000 [2]. - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the importance of competing in the Chinese market, warning that U.S. restrictions could inadvertently strengthen local competitors like Huawei [5]. Group 3: Impact of U.S. Government Policies - Huang estimates that the recent U.S. export restrictions could result in a revenue loss of $15 billion for Nvidia and a potential tax revenue loss of $3 billion for the U.S. government [3][5]. - The restrictions on the H20 chip are viewed as short-sighted, as they may drive Chinese companies to invest in local alternatives, ultimately undermining Nvidia's competitive advantage in the AI sector [4][5].