GF SECURITIES(SZ:000776) 戴康的策略世界·2025-05-27 12:59Introduction - The article discusses the "new investment paradigm" and highlights the ongoing restructuring of the global order, driven by unconventional methods to address the current global supply-demand imbalance [3][9]. Strategic Level - Global asset pricing significantly underestimates the risk of a U.S. recession, with a notable divergence in investor sentiment regarding the U.S. economy [3][18]. - The current market is seen as having a substantial mispricing of recession risks, particularly in U.S. assets, suggesting that a "recession trade" could be a favorable asymmetric trading strategy [3][52]. - The article emphasizes the need for long-term investors to deeply understand the direction of the global order's restructuring and to assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets [22][51]. Tactical Level - Short-term sentiment in global risk assets, particularly U.S. equities, is perceived to be overstretched, following a significant rebound catalyzed by tariff easing [5][53]. - Indicators such as the VIX futures returning to a contango state and the BNP global risk premium index reaching historical lows suggest high market sentiment but also an accumulation of risk [5][56]. - The article advises a contrarian approach to U.S. equity allocation, focusing on defensive sectors in the short term while monitoring developments in negotiations with key global players [5][64]. Macro Trading Background - The new investment paradigm is framed by three macro trading backgrounds: U.S. Treasury yields expected to remain high for an extended period, Chinese bond yields expected to remain low, and an elevation in the global risk premium [3][13]. - The article outlines the implications of these macroeconomic factors on global asset correlations and volatility, indicating a potential long-term disruption to existing asset allocation frameworks [13][18].