姐妹不喝白酒，兄弟已入潮玩

Core Viewpoint - The performance of a consumer-themed fund is significantly influenced by its Hong Kong stock positions, with the "new consumption trio" in Hong Kong becoming prominent names in the capital market despite mixed signals from domestic consumption data [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The consumer sector is experiencing a bifurcation, with the central government introducing measures to boost consumption, yet statistical data shows no significant improvement [3]. - The market has seen remarkable performances from companies like Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Ice City, with the latter's stock price doubling shortly after its IPO [3]. - In contrast, Pop Mart, despite facing a significant market downturn, has recently regained its status as a market leader with a market cap exceeding 300 billion HKD [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - The contrasting actions of companies, such as Kweichow Moutai's stock buyback and the significant sell-offs by its founders, illustrate that buybacks and sell-offs do not always correlate with market sentiment [4]. - The sentiment in the secondary market is heavily influenced by stock price movements, where only declines are viewed negatively, while increases are seen as positive regardless of corporate actions [4][5]. Group 3: Historical Context - Pop Mart's IPO in 2020 was marked by extreme enthusiasm, with a subscription rate exceeding 356 times and an opening price that doubled from its issue price [7]. - However, the stock's performance has been volatile, with significant declines following its initial surge, leading to a prolonged period of underperformance in the secondary market [8][10]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The pandemic and subsequent restrictions have severely impacted Pop Mart's primary sales channels, leading to a drastic reduction in foot traffic [10]. - The proliferation of blind box products has diluted consumer interest, with competitors like Miniso and Luckin Coffee entering the market with lower-cost alternatives [10]. - Regulatory scrutiny has increased, with policies introduced to limit blind box pricing and lottery probabilities, further complicating the market landscape [10]. Group 5: Fund Management Strategies - Prominent fund managers have faced challenges in navigating the market, with some, like Zhang Kun, experiencing significant losses after heavily investing in Pop Mart during its downturn [11][12]. - Despite the adverse market conditions, some fund managers maintained their positions, only to exit as the stock began to recover, reflecting a cautious approach to volatile investments [14][16]. Group 6: Future Outlook - As of 2024, the number of funds heavily invested in Pop Mart has increased, with a notable shift in sentiment as managers who previously focused on Kweichow Moutai now pivot towards Pop Mart [18][24]. - The company's 2023 performance and optimistic 2024 guidance, projecting over 30% revenue growth, have rekindled investor interest, particularly in its overseas expansion efforts [22][24]. - The market's perception of Pop Mart's growth potential remains cautious, with some fund managers opting to reduce their holdings despite the company's recovery [23].