英伟达业绩：better than feared

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent updates from DeepSeek and NVIDIA's performance, highlighting that NVIDIA's results were better than expected, with significant implications for the AI market and the company's future growth prospects [1][2]. Group 1: DeepSeek and NVIDIA Performance - DeepSeek has updated to version R1-0528, indicating improved reasoning capabilities, but it does not consider this version worthy of being labeled as "R2," suggesting that a true R2 will likely be based on V4 rather than V3 and will require more time for development [1]. - NVIDIA's H20 segment had an overestimation of $1 billion, reducing the total from $5.5 billion to $4.5 billion, as some materials can be reused, which was previously underestimated [1]. - The CFO mentioned that prior to April 9, NVIDIA shipped $4.6 billion worth of H20, but the export ban resulted in a $2.5 billion shortfall in Q1 shipments, leading to a significant capital expenditure gap of nearly $20 billion [1]. Group 2: Revenue and Market Demand - The H20 segment is expected to impact $8 billion in revenue for Q2, but if adjusted, Q2 revenue could exceed $54 billion, indicating strong demand for Blackwell GPUs, which accounted for 70% of DC revenue [1]. - Blackwell GPU revenue is projected to increase from $10 billion in Q1 to $30 billion in Q2, showcasing a rapid transition from H to B cards [1]. - The CEO emphasized a dramatic increase in reasoning demand, citing examples from major companies like Microsoft and Google, and noted that the emergence of agents will further drive this demand [1]. Group 3: Importance of the Chinese Market - The CEO reiterated the significance of the Chinese market, stating that the $50 billion market has effectively closed off U.S. industrial opportunities due to export bans, impacting the Hopper data center business [2]. - The article suggests that regardless of U.S. chip availability, AI development in China continues to progress, raising concerns about whether the largest AI market will operate on U.S. platforms [2]. - The export restrictions are seen as a catalyst for innovation among Chinese chip manufacturers, which could enhance their competitiveness internationally while potentially weakening the U.S. position [2].