英伟达财报夜的气氛变了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, particularly in relation to the anticipated earnings report from NVIDIA, highlighting a shift in investor sentiment and expectations compared to previous quarters [2][4]. Group 1: NVIDIA Earnings Expectations - A-share companies in the NVIDIA supply chain saw significant stock price increases, with notable gains from companies like Xinyiseng (up 6.08%) and Shenghong Technology (up 4.22%) [2]. - Current market expectations for NVIDIA's upcoming earnings are between $440 billion and $450 billion, with estimates from major investment banks like Morgan Stanley at $435 billion and UBS at $446 billion [2][3]. - The author's own estimate for NVIDIA's revenue is $455 billion, noting a significant expected decline in gross margin by 8% [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment Shift - There is a notable change in investor sentiment, with many investors adopting a more relaxed attitude and lower expectations compared to the previous two years, where high expectations were the norm [4]. - Investors are now more focused on Microsoft's earnings report and the potential breakthroughs in applications and AI agents, showing a more measured approach to NVIDIA's performance [4]. - The current atmosphere allows NVIDIA to focus on delivery rather than being pressured by market expectations, indicating a strategic shift in their operational approach [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Valuation - The consensus revenue expectation for NVIDIA has decreased from $463 billion to $450 billion over the past month, reflecting a cautious outlook among both buyers and sellers [7]. - Despite the anticipated disappointing earnings, there is a belief that this could serve as a positive cleansing event for the company [5]. - Many institutions are optimistic about NVIDIA's potential for record growth in the second half of the year, citing its attractive valuation and the expectation that gross margins will return to the mid-70% range [12][13]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that selecting undervalued technology companies alongside NVIDIA could be a sound mid-term investment strategy, as the market has identified several promising candidates [14]. - There is a cautionary note regarding sectors that have been overly hyped, as NVIDIA has moved past its explosive growth phase, and the A-share market's speculative nature can lead to volatility [14].