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【广发宏观郭磊】关于5月出口的几个具体问题

Core Viewpoint - The export performance in May is characterized as "overall resilience with slight slowdown," with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is lower than the first quarter's 5.7% and April's 8.1% [6][7][8] Export Performance - The export growth of 4.8% in May is still considered relatively low, and it is below the historical seasonal average for the month [6][8] - The decline in exports is primarily attributed to a significant drop in exports to the United States, which saw a year-on-year decrease of 34.5%, worsening from the previous month's decline of 21.0% [8][9] - There was a temporary "rush to export" observed in early May, but this trend weakened later in the month, likely due to uncertainty in expectations following tariff adjustments [9][10] Shipping Rates and Trade Dynamics - Despite the drop in export volumes, shipping rates to the U.S. have been rising, possibly due to a reallocation of shipping capacity to other routes and increased operational costs [10][11] - There is no significant evidence of a marked increase in third-party transshipment trade, as export growth rates to ASEAN and India have decreased compared to previous values [11][12] Export Market Structure - In May, ASEAN accounted for the largest share of China's exports at 18.5%, followed by the EU at 15.7%, while exports to the U.S. have dropped to 9.1% [11][12] - The impact of tariffs on Chinese exports is expected to be less severe than in 2018, when exports to the U.S. constituted 19.2% of total exports [11][12] Product Structure Changes - The export of labor-intensive products showed a slight decline of 0.9%, while electronic products saw a growth of 3.9%, with integrated circuits performing particularly well [13] - The export growth of automobiles and ships rebounded significantly, with increases of 13.7% and 43.7% respectively, while rare earth exports fell sharply by 48% [13][14] Future Outlook - The current trend of a 34.5% decline in exports to the U.S. may stabilize, with recent shipping data indicating a potential rebound in early June [14] - The resilience of export data is expected to support the lower bound of the economic fundamentals, while the upper bound will depend on reassessing risk preferences and nominal GDP elasticity [14][15]