中金 | 具身智能：AI下一站

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that humanoid robots represent a significant advancement in embodied intelligence, with the potential to drive social and economic development, and the industry chain is expected to experience substantial growth opportunities [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Humanoid robots are considered the optimal form of embodied intelligence, consisting of a humanoid body and an intelligent agent [1]. - Since 2020, the AI industry has entered a rapid development phase, with many governments positioning humanoid robotics as a national strategy, leading to increased competition among tech companies [1]. - The potential market space for humanoid robots is projected to exceed trillions of yuan in the long term [1]. Group 2: Hardware Development - The humanoid robot hardware industry focuses on three core components: joint actuators, dexterous hands, and sensors, with varying progress across the industry [2]. - China’s mature industrial base means hardware is not a bottleneck for development, but rapid iteration is necessary to find the optimal balance between performance and cost [2]. - Key hardware segments are categorized into mature, rapidly iterating, and undecided solutions, with a recommendation to focus on cost-reduction opportunities in core segments [2]. Group 3: Software Development - The humanoid robot software industry centers around the "big and small brain" concept, supported by data and software infrastructure [2]. - The current mainstream architecture is a layered structure of "big and small brains," while integrated end-to-end solutions are also being explored [2]. - The scarcity of high-quality data for training models is a current bottleneck, with a combination of real data and simulation being used for model training [2]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The competition in the humanoid robot market is becoming increasingly diverse, with various players including startups, cross-industry companies, and AI hardware/software firms entering the field [13]. - Major companies like Tesla and Toyota are leveraging their existing supply chains to facilitate the integration of humanoid robots into their operations [13]. - The industry is expected to see a surge in new products in 2023, with leading manufacturers beginning to explore commercialization possibilities in 2024 [16]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Humanoid robots are anticipated to be capable of performing diverse tasks across various industries, including service, manufacturing, healthcare, and more [18]. - The potential market for humanoid robots in China could reach 22.8 trillion yuan by 2050, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.7% from 2024 to 2050 [22]. - The article outlines that as technology improves and costs decrease, the economic feasibility of deploying humanoid robots in various sectors will increase, leading to broader adoption [21].