评司论企｜碧桂园能否完成自救？

Core Viewpoint - The market is not permanently bullish or bearish, and under policy support, it is trending positively. The key lies in adapting to the new normal and patiently waiting for recovery opportunities [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Country Garden announced the third extension of the restructuring support agreement deadline for qualified creditors, indicating ongoing challenges in debt restructuring [2]. - The company is under significant pressure from two fronts: ensuring home delivery and debt restructuring, which are critical for its survival [2]. Group 2: Home Delivery Efforts - Country Garden emphasized that home delivery remains its top priority, with over 600,000 homes delivered in 2023 and a target of 210,000 homes in 2025 [4][5]. - The company’s land reserve with pre-sale permits has decreased significantly, down 73% from 2022, indicating a tightening of available projects for delivery [4]. - The company plans to focus on home delivery in the first half of 2025, with a balanced approach in the second half to ensure operational stability [5]. Group 3: Debt Restructuring - Over 70% of holders have joined the offshore debt restructuring agreement, which could potentially reduce debt by $11 billion [6][11]. - The restructuring plan includes options such as cash buybacks and forced conversion of debt into equity, with varying recovery rates based on the chosen option [11][12]. - The company faces significant challenges, including a cash outflow situation and a substantial decline in sales, which fell by 73% year-on-year in 2024 [15]. Group 4: Financial Health - As of the end of 2024, Country Garden's cash and cash equivalents were at 29.9 billion yuan, with ongoing asset sales to meet obligations [5][15]. - The company reported a net loss, leading to a decline in total equity to 51.25 billion yuan, with negative equity of 7.2 billion yuan for the parent company [15][16]. - The company’s inventory value accounts for nearly 57% of total assets, with significant impairment losses recognized in recent years [16]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The management expresses confidence in navigating the current market challenges, emphasizing the importance of adapting to the new market normal and waiting for recovery opportunities [17].