“抢出口2.0”力度开始衰减（国金宏观孙永乐）

Core Viewpoint - Despite the easing of tariffs between China and the U.S., the average tariff rate on Chinese goods remains high at around 42%, with significant portions of goods facing rates as high as 57% [2][3] Tariff Analysis - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports from China is approximately 42%, with 40% of goods facing a rate of about 39.5% and 32% facing around 57% [2] - The breakdown of tariffs includes: - Base tariff + Fentanyl tariff + Equalization tariff: 36,011,281 (7.78%) - Base tariff + Fentanyl tariff + Equalization tariff + 301 List (1-3): 146,373,663 (31.64%) - Base tariff + Fentanyl tariff + Equalization tariff + 301 List (4): 187,165,284 (40.46%) - Other categories account for 123,359,456 (26.66%) [3] Trade Dynamics - Following the tariff easing in May, there has been a recovery in direct trade between China and the U.S., with indices for the CCFI West and East routes increasing by 21% and 23% respectively [4] - However, the number of container ships from China to the U.S. showed weak performance in late May, indicating a time lag in the recovery process [4] Import Trends - The U.S. has been "rushing imports" since November last year, with approximately $220 billion worth of goods imported from November 2024 to March 2025, equivalent to one month’s import volume prior to this period [7] - As inventory levels rise and shipping costs increase, U.S. import demand has started to decline, with the growth rate of goods imports dropping from 31.1% in March to 2.2% in April [7] Export Orders - The PMI export order index for China in May and the number of container ships heading to the U.S. in early June suggest that the momentum for "rushing exports 2.0" may be starting to wane [7]