半导体设备市场：冰火两重天

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow by 21% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching $32.05 billion, despite a 5% quarter-on-quarter decline, indicating resilience in the semiconductor industry amid geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain adjustments [1][34]. Regional Summaries China Mainland - In Q1 2025, the revenue for the Chinese mainland semiconductor equipment market was $10.26 billion, maintaining its position as the largest single market globally, but showing a 14% quarter-on-quarter and 18% year-on-year decline [4][5]. - The market share of the Chinese mainland in global semiconductor equipment sales dropped from 47% in the previous year to 32% due to increased investments in Taiwan and South Korea [5][22]. South Korea - South Korea's semiconductor equipment market saw a robust performance in Q1 2025, with revenues of $7.69 billion, reflecting a 24% quarter-on-quarter and 48% year-on-year increase, driven by a recovery in memory chips and significant expansions by major manufacturers [4][8]. - The Korean government’s "K-Semiconductor Strategy" has provided substantial support, including tax incentives and subsidies, which has further stimulated equipment orders [9][10]. Taiwan - Taiwan's semiconductor equipment market experienced explosive growth, with a 203% year-on-year increase to $7.09 billion in Q1 2025, fueled by major manufacturers like TSMC ramping up production and advanced packaging technologies [4][10]. - TSMC's expansion plans and the introduction of new process nodes have significantly driven equipment demand, with a focus on advanced manufacturing capabilities [10][12]. North America - North America's semiconductor equipment market revenue reached $2.93 billion in Q1 2025, showing a 41% quarter-on-quarter decline but a 55% year-on-year increase, influenced by previous high capital expenditures and a shift towards quality demand [4][14]. - The market is characterized by a "pulse expansion" effect, where previous concentrated procurement led to a temporary decline in subsequent quarters [15]. Japan - Japan's semiconductor equipment market reported a 20% year-on-year increase to $2.18 billion in Q1 2025, driven by domestic policies and capacity expansions, despite an 18% quarter-on-quarter decline due to seasonal fluctuations [4][17]. - The market's growth is supported by Japan's competitive edge in mature process equipment and advanced packaging materials [18]. Europe - Europe's semiconductor equipment market faced a significant downturn, with revenues dropping 54% year-on-year to $0.87 billion in Q1 2025, attributed to ineffective policy execution and reduced capital expenditures [4][19]. - The region's lack of competitive semiconductor manufacturing capabilities has led to a systemic decline in equipment demand, exacerbated by geopolitical factors [21]. Industry Dynamics - The global semiconductor equipment market is experiencing structural differentiation, with high-end chip demand driven by AI and advanced processes, while mature process segments face oversupply issues [35][36]. - The industry is expected to enter an expansion phase in the latter half of 2025, with increased demand for advanced chips and a recovery in capacity utilization across wafer fabs [37].