Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in deposit rates by major banks in China, with the one-year fixed deposit rate falling below 1%, poses challenges for money market funds and cash management products, prompting a need for strategies to adapt to this low-yield environment by learning from overseas experiences [2][3]. Group 1: Overview of Low-Interest Rate Environments - In the U.S., the money market fund (MMF) yield entered the "1%" era during three periods: 2003-2004, 2009-2017, and 2020-2021, with significant capital outflows during low yield periods [5][6][7]. - The Eurozone experienced a decline in MMF scale during low-interest periods, but saw an increase during negative interest rates due to the relative attractiveness of MMFs compared to other rates [9][10][11][12]. - Japan's MMFs faced extinction in a negative interest rate environment, with the money reserve fund (MRF) becoming dominant due to its association with securities accounts [14][16]. Group 2: Factors Influencing MMF Scale Changes - The elasticity of nominal interest rates to policy rate changes leads to different behaviors in fund flows, with MMFs showing higher sensitivity compared to bank deposits [21][22]. - The different approaches to negative interest rate policies in Europe and Japan resulted in contrasting outcomes for MMFs, with European funds expanding while Japanese funds contracted [42][43][45]. - Inflation impacts real interest rates, influencing market preferences for low-risk assets, with higher real rates encouraging savings and benefiting MMFs [48][49]. Group 3: Strategies for Fund Managers - Fund managers in low-interest environments often reduce fees to enhance client returns, as seen in the U.S. during the 2003-2004 period [51][56]. - Seeking yield through credit and liquidity premiums becomes crucial, with U.S. MMFs increasing allocations to commercial paper and corporate notes during low yield periods [52]. - Building product ecosystems and increasing overseas investments are strategies employed by fund managers to maintain competitiveness in challenging environments [54][58]. Group 4: Regulatory Responses - Overseas regulators have generally moved towards net asset value (NAV) reform for MMFs to ensure industry health in low-rate environments, with Europe implementing market value-based valuations [61]. - Japan's earlier reforms in MMF valuation have set a precedent for adapting to low-interest conditions, allowing for more flexible investment strategies [61]. Group 5: Implications for China - China's dual-track interest rate system means that the relationship between money market rates and deposit rates is influenced by both market and policy factors, with recent trends showing deposit rates adjusting more rapidly [63][64]. - The future of MMFs in China will depend on whether money market rates fall significantly below deposit rates, with current trends suggesting a continued advantage for MMFs [70]. - A potential decline in inflation could further elevate real interest rates, benefiting low-risk assets like MMFs [71].
低利率时代，货基的挑战与应对 | 宏观经济