独家洞察 | 美股牛市要崩？前方多重风险预警！

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are under pressure due to various factors, including U.S. fiscal policies, financial market changes, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Market Performance - From June 9 to June 12, U.S. stock indices showed an overall upward trend, continuing a previous rebound. However, on June 13, the market sentiment turned pessimistic due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, leading to significant declines in major indices [3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 769.83 points (1.79%) to close at 42197.79, with a weekly decline of 1.32%. The S&P 500 dropped by 68.29 points (1.13%) to 5976.97, with a weekly decline of 0.39%. The Nasdaq index decreased by 255.66 points (1.30%) to 19406.83, with a weekly decline of 0.63% [3] Analyst Insights - Andrew Tyler from JPMorgan has shifted the firm's stance from "tactically bullish" to "tactically cautious," citing geopolitical uncertainties and an impending trade agreement expiration as reasons for potential market adjustments [3][4] - Key factors prompting this adjustment include escalating geopolitical risks, short-term inflation volatility, profit-taking by some investors, concentrated market positions, and signs of capital rotation [4] Inflation and Oil Prices - JPMorgan warns that if oil prices exceed $120 per barrel, it could lead to severe inflationary pressures, potentially pushing the U.S. CPI from the current 2.4% to 5.0%, which may force the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy again [4] - Since April 8, the S&P 500 has risen by 20%, the Nasdaq 100 by 26.6%, and the technology sector by 33.35%, with the semiconductor sector surging by 42.7%. However, historical data indicates that the SOX semiconductor index often underperforms from June to September, suggesting potential technical adjustment pressures [5] Sector Performance - Despite strong overall performance, U.S. stocks have underperformed global markets by 350 basis points year-to-date, particularly lagging behind the Asia-Pacific markets by 748 basis points [5] - The technology sector has benefited significantly from improved U.S.-China relations, with multinational companies' earnings expectations rising following a framework agreement reached during trade talks [5] - The energy sector has also performed well, driven by rising international oil prices amid geopolitical tensions, particularly following Israeli airstrikes on Iran [6] - Conversely, the consumer sector faces significant pressure due to new tariff policies that may increase costs for multinational companies, potentially squeezing profit margins and affecting stock performance [6] Conclusion - Overall, while the U.S. stock market shows structural opportunities, particularly in traditional energy and telecommunications sectors, the rebound in energy prices poses risks of recurring inflation [6]